If Irish Americans get their way come November 8, it will be a Clinton White House once again.
In a poll of 3,217 IrishCentral readers, 57% (1,842) said they would vote for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate. Thirty-five percent (1,132) said they would vote for the Republican nominee Donald Trump, while 8% (243) remain undecided with less than two months to go until Election Day.
This presents a significant change from IrishCentral’s first presidential opinion poll, conducted in March, in which Trump had the edge over Clinton at 45% to 41%.
Here’s the in-depth breakdown:
Seventy three percent (2,393) of those who voted in the poll were based in the US. When it comes to the Irish American vote, 56% are in favor of Hillary; 37% are for Trump; and 7% said they are still undecided.
This is a much sharper contrast than recent polls of the wider American population, which, on average, have Clinton at 46.1% and Trump at 43.8%.
The comment section also included a number of third-party candidate supporters, including four votes for the Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and three for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
A number of commenters seemed to view their candidate as the lesser of two poor choices. Katherine Cavanaugh is one such example. She wrote: “If you vote for Clinton you know what you will get as someone who understands the job at hand and will in her wonky way get it done, but you will still not like her that much. A vote for Trump is a roulette wheel move by putting all your chips on red and hope you win. Plus, more than likely after a few months of his blather you won't like him anymore than Clinton, and he is also not meeting the job description.”
Another commenter, Marcus Orr, questioned why any conservative would vote for Trump, calling him “as liberal as they come. A huge US Democrat who has pumped big money into the Democrats every year until 2012. As a financial donor he's pumped millions into the Clinton family until he decided back in '12 that he would suddenly become a Republican. His sister is a hugely Democrat leaning judge (who he endorsed this year), he says that it is a crime for a woman to have an abortion (something that no Republican has ever said, since ever). For any conservative worth his or her salt, it is obvious what Trump is.”
In Ireland, where 456 people voted in the poll, 60% were for Clinton, 30% for Trump, and 10% undecided. These results were much the same as the previous poll. Given the Clintons’ longstanding relationship with Ireland and the fact that the Irish Dail (parliament) went so far as to hear a petition calling to ban Donald Trump from entering the country, this was not entirely surprising. At the same time, Trump does have his pockets of supporters in Ireland, especially in Doonbeg, Co. Clare, where his golf course and hotel is a huge source of employment.
In the UK, where 153 people voted, 66% were for Clinton, 26% for Trump and 8% undecided.
This trend continued in other countries with significant Irish diasporas, including Canada (68% Clinton, 25% Trump, 7% undecided) and Australia (61% Clinton, 33% Trump, 6% undecided). New Zealand’s votes were more evenly distributed, with 56% for Clinton, 22% for Trump and 22% undecided.
A few countries such as South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Poland (in purple on the map) were for Trump, but none of these had more than four poll participants.
Age and gender
Interestingly, Trump received the greatest proportion of votes among participants ages 25-44. Among voters 18-24 and 55 – 65+, Clinton had a clear edge. Participants in the 45-54 age bracket were nearly evenly split between the two candidates, with a small number undecided.
Female participants were overwhelmingly in favor of Clinton, while Trump fared somewhat better among male participants – this is in keeping with the larger trend noted in yesterday’s column on Trump’s “Regan effect” by Niall O’Dowd.
Didn’t get a chance to vote in the poll? Let us know your 2016 election thoughts in the comment section.