While Ireland's welcome mat will be out next week for Biden, this most Irish of US presidents, there will also be an impact on a key voting bloc in the United States.
Biden is a dedicated Hibernophile and has made abundantly clear his affinity for his Irish roots which includes counties Mayo and Louth where his people come from. But he is also an incredibly smooth political operator with an eye to his 2024 election.
Biden did not survive 50 years in politics without an acute political brain and a deep understanding of the concerns of the voters. He is brilliant at discerning what President Clinton described as the “mood music” of the electorate and acting in concert with them.
Biden is also a heavy believer in the power of ethnic voting. He has an unparalleled ability to articulate in the moment what the key political outreach should be to each community.
One could even say he is kickstarting his outreach strategy when he lands in Ireland next week.
The 2024 race is already underway, and where better to start the drumroll for that final campaign than by walking in the footsteps of those ancestors in Louth and Mayo whose passage to America changed everything?
The president has long been a student of his extensive family history, and that history is rooted in Irish soil.
But there is a clear undertone to this unprecedented political trip in the context of the election.
Due to the bizarre Electoral College system, Biden will likely be focused on three states which will decide the next election.
The fact that he won the popular vote by eight million in 2020, and that Hillary Clinton won it by three million in 2016, is of zero significance because of the Electoral College.
Instead of a nationwide campaign, Biden will be looking to secure the blue wall states. Those are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where the margins of victories in the last three elections have become wafer thin.
The states also have very large working-class Irish populations and Biden has made them a cornerstone of his political outreach.
Gone is the day when those states were all solidly Democratic, but Biden’s intense focus on rekindling ties with traditional Irish Catholic voters paid off in the last election. He spent much of the last few weeks of the election laser-focused on white working-class votes.
His strategy in Pennsylvania was to cut down President Trump's success margin in those areas while amassing a huge victory in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia suburbs. The strategy worked wonderfully well for him as he kept the margins of defeat in solid red counties to a realistic number.
Now Biden prepares for a second run in an election with huge consequences as Trump has not gone away despite the disgrace that was January 6, 2021.
The reception for one of their own in Ireland will be massive and friendly, and Biden will be able to attach himself to the document that made all the difference, the Good Friday Agreement.
The scope of the visit and the clear commitment of Biden to Ireland as evidenced in his rebuke to the British on Brexit speaks for itself.
Fáilte abhaile (welcome home), Mr. President.
*This column first appeared in the April 5 edition of the weekly Irish Voice newspaper, sister publication to IrishCentral.
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