"Building a Virtuous Demographic Cycle," the new research report published by the National Economic and Social Council (NESC) in Ireland, examines the impact of demographic changes on Ireland.
The NESC says that Ireland is undergoing a series of demographic shifts and has already passed two notable turning points: ‘peak baby’ in 2010 and ‘peak child’ in 2024, both reflecting a sharp and sustained fall in births.
Because of this, Ireland will reach peak population in approximately three decades, the NESC says. This will mean an ageing population, and each year Ireland is getting older.
The NESC said that there are also substantial regional variations to these demographic changes.
"Ireland risks a downward vicious cycle where it has insufficient workers, therefore insufficient tax revenues to support the ageing population, and insufficient investment in infrastructure," the Council said.
NEW #NESC COUNCIL REPORT NO.171 - READ HERE: https://t.co/E5i0EbrbUr
The new @NESCIreland Council Report "Building A Virtuous Demographic Cycle", published today, posits that Ireland’s societal shifts are accelerating, ushering the country into a new demographic era (1/4). pic.twitter.com/XZizP8z8jP
— NESC Ireland (@NESCIreland) December 29, 2025
However, the NESC said its report highlights that rather than a downward cycle, Ireland could shift to a healthier and more balanced cycle – where birth rates are supported, participation in the labour force is increased, and health services are reconfigured to support early intervention and community-based interventions.
At the same time, the benefits of demographic dynamism can be spread, and fiscal preparations can be made for future changes in population.
“Demographic change is inevitable, but it does not have to be destabilising," Dr. Gráinne Collins, Policy Analyst at NESC, said.
"It is a signal to plan ahead to create the country we want to live in.
"By acting now, we ensure that future generations inherit a social model that is resilient, sustainable, and genuinely inclusive.
“Ireland has already crossed two demographic thresholds — peak baby and peak child — marking a decisive shift from population expansion to gradual population ageing; we therefore need to prepare economically and socially for the other demographic changes that are coming,” she stated.
The NESC made several recommendations to prepare for demographic change, including:
- Ireland needs to invest in demographic modelling and research into the motives that affect demography, such as the decision to have a baby or to emigrate.
- Ireland should prepare for the high estimates of population growth and recalibrate as necessary.
- NESC reveals the need to coordinate policies across a wide range of areas to ensure that demographic changes become a source of strength.
- The NESC Council finds that while many policies are in place, much more ambition and resources are needed to ensure that the policy goal is achieved.
Dr. Collins added: “Too often Ireland has been looking at population change in the rear-view mirror; we need to become better at modelling and anticipating changes and preparing for them.”
Dr. Larry O’Connell, Director of NESC, added: “Ageing, falling fertility and shifting migration patterns are reshaping societies across Europe, and Ireland is no exception.
"While Ireland has undergone remarkable change in recent decades, it would be unrealistic to assume this pace can continue indefinitely.
"Demographic trends will shape living standards, labour markets, and the sustainability of public finances for many years to come, and a rapidly ageing population will place growing pressure on our care systems.
“Long-term planning is therefore essential as we confront these profound shifts. With a positive and ambitious approach, Ireland can ensure that demographic change becomes a springboard for a more cohesive and inclusive society.”
Taoiseach welcomes publication
Welcoming the new report, Ireland's Taoiseach Micheal Martin said on Tuesday: "Ireland’s economy and population have both grown significantly across a generation, and this report examines the long-term impacts of global trends and other shifts in the make-up of Irish society and their potential impact on Ireland’s economy and public finances in the years ahead.
"The Council’s report is very useful in highlighting the need and potential of shaping future demographic trends to the country’s advantage.”
The Department of the Taoiseach noted that the 'Future Forty' work by Ireland's Department of Finance highlights the need for Ireland to prepare for the changes outlined in the new report.
"Sustaining social cohesion, economic resilience, and fiscal sustainability requires coordinated policy action across multiple domains," the Department said.
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