Joe Biden and Donald Trump have emerged as the primary frontrunners, and unless something dramatic happens, both will be their parties’ nominees for the 2024 Presidential Election.
As we slowly crawl toward the election in November 2024, there will be many twists and turns on the electoral path. There will be specific issues that will come up over and over again and yet it is arguable that the script is already written for Campaign 2024.
The Republicans will seek to highlight the age of Joe Biden (despite Donald Trump being only slightly younger). They will seek to make an example out of Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, and his various activities. They will seek to highlight the Democrats as reckless spenders in an economy that they will claim is out of control.
The Democrats will seek to tie Donald Trump and the Republicans to the Capital Insurrection. They will seek to how the Republicans favor the elite at a cost to the working and lower classes. They will seek to show how voting rights have been gradually eroded throughout the country, particularly in the lower economic areas.
And finally, there are two topics that place Americans at the polar extremes and have been ever present as topics to get the most uninterested person in politics screaming with passion. The Pro-Life/Pro-Choice debate is raging throughout the country following the Supreme Court judgment last year.
And then we have the gun debate. Another mass shooting at the weekend continues to further sow divisions between those who believe that guns should be removed from society versus those who feel they should be more plentiful.
Regardless of one’s political beliefs, it could be argued that the United States is at a true crossroads. The Biden campaign wants to finish what they’ve started. The Trump campaign feels they have unfinished business. Some will want more of the same, and others will want to return to where they were.
So, there is a choice, more of the same with Joe Biden, or back to the past with Donald Trump? Will any of the hot-button issues outlined really make a difference in the election? Or will it come down to how the economy and job market are doing?
If people feel good about themselves and how the country is faring, it may just be enough for Joe Biden. But if people get the sense that prices will continue to rise, and the economy falter, Trump may seek to act as the economic savior and catapult himself to electoral victory.
One of the main differences between an Irish election and a US election is that when registering to vote, an American citizen is asked to register as either a Democrat, Republican, or Independent. It is arguable that regardless of who is running, 45% of the country will always vote Democrat, 45% Republican, and the remaining 10% will shape the overall result. It is also historically suggested that the average voter has a very short memory and that most neutral voters do not make their minds up until the period between Labor Day in September and Election Day in November.
These suggestions feel increasingly irrelevant when it comes to Donald Trump. Love him or hate him, it is hard to imagine that there is a portion of the population out there that is completely neutral on Donald Trump. With that in mind, it is possible that most people have already decided on how they will vote in November 2024. As a result, rather than it being about specific issues, the election could very well be shaped by the party machines getting their votes out.
Election campaigns have many twists and turns. Polls and the media often portray a race as closer than it really is. The unfortunate reality though is also the greatest contradiction in American politics. A close election in Ireland may mean issues of common interest, a similarity of political parties, and not much to choose from in terms of party leader. The closer the election results in the United States, may mean a more divided nation than ever.
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