A financial expert claims that Ireland will leave the European Union soon after the UK’s departure, despite the assurances of Irish Taoiseach Enda Kenny that Ireland's membership is certain.
Investment guru Andrew Amoils, who worked for investment bank JP Morgan and is now the head of research at New World Wealth, believes the UK’s exit from the EU will result in a large number of immigrants relocating to Ireland, a move he feels will lead to Irish “panic,” causing the country to hold its own referendum on EU membership.
As the EU’s biggest English-speaking nation, Amoils believes the UK to be one of the pillars that held the 28-nation bloc together, as citizens of other countries looked to move to the UK through the free movement program. He predicts that these citizens will now look to Ireland as the only other major English-speaking country, resulting in three million immigrants making their way to Ireland to work as English is the second language of most European citizens.
As a result, the financial expert expects to see Ireland hold its own referendum in the next five years. He believes the EU will survive structured around a core of Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
"Ireland will be the only English-speaking country left in the EU. This will likely result in a large inflow of EU migrants into Ireland as most EU citizens have English as their second language. Very few EU citizens know French, German or other European languages,” Amoils wrote.
"As a result, we expect over three million EU citizens to enter Ireland over the next five years – this may create some panic in Ireland and may cause them to hold their own referendum in a few years.
"For many EU citizens the possibility of going to the UK without restriction was the cherry on the cake as it was an English speaking country with a good social welfare system and offered a route to other English speaking countries such as the US and Australia through work transfers. That cherry is now gone."
Worth noting that if Ireland left EU we wouldn't be able to measure increase in racist attacks - because we have no hate-crime legislation.— Colette Browne (@colettebrowne) July 1, 2016
"We say we are not bound by a UK vote...We stand by the vote of the people of the North of Ireland." https://t.co/zZEKHscSxP— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 28, 2016
Taoiseach Kenny disagrees, however, stating that "Ireland will, of course, remain a member of the European Union."
"After more than 40 years of membership, we have built up strong bonds of partnership with all the other member states, and with the European institutions, that will continue to serve us well,” Kenny said.
"There will be a discussion of the next steps at the meeting of the European Council next week.
"I will clearly set out our national position at that meeting, and I will ensure that our particular national interests are fully respected as we prepare to enter the next phase of negotiations," he continued.
Last February, influential London-based hedge fund Toscafund also claimed that Ireland would be better off maintaining its relationship with the UK than remaining in the EU in the event of Brexit.
In a paper entitled “Britain stands up – Better to exit European Union,” the hedge fund claimed that the value of trade between the UK and Ireland would mean Ireland would be better off outside the EU and that Ireland and Scotland "need to realize that economically their interests are best served joining England in engaging with a flourishing Asia. Their alternative is floundering with the rest of Europe."
Investment guru Amolis continued to say that he believes other large English-speaking countries, such as the US, will follow suit and begin to abandon the EU because of a language barrier.
"Major worldwide markets such as USA, China, Japan, India, Canada, Australia and New Zealand are likely to lose interest in the EU,” he wrote, “as very few of the people in these countries know any European languages. They only know English.”
There has been some discussion since the Brexit vote about the position of the English language within the EU, with some saying that it should no longer remain as an official language when the UK officially leaves.
“English is our official language because it has been notified by the UK. If we don’t have the UK, we don’t have English,” said Polish MEP and chair of the European Parliament’s constitutional affairs committee Danuta Hübne on Monday.
This statement was firmly rejected by the European Commission Representation in Ireland who believed the claim that English would be removed as an official language to be incorrect.
“The Council of Ministers, acting unanimously, decide on the rules governing the use of languages by the European institutions. In other words, any change to the EU Institutions’ language regime is subject to a unanimous vote of the Council, including Ireland's,” a statement said on behalf of the Representation.
Taoiseach setting Ireland up on a collision course with larger EU states over their attempts to preordain the exit talks— Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) June 27, 2016
Brits say they won't leave EU till they have a deal, this means Ireland Inc shld get on phone to corporate America right now! Go for it!— David McWilliams (@davidmcw) June 27, 2016
The loss of English as an official language would have some detrimental effects for Ireland, as many of the country’s Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) would not be able to converse in our official language, Irish.
Despite going on a language strike and refusing to speak anything but Irish in the Parliament to protest the treatment of the Irish language at EU level last year, Irish MEP Liadh Ní Riada has warned the Irish government to actively ensure the EU does not lose English as one of its official languages.
Herself a fluent Irish speaker and advocate of the language, Ní Riada believes we must still ensure English is available in the EU for those in Ireland who consider English their official language and who speak only English.
The EU currently has 24 official language and despite receiving full status in the EU in 2007, Irish remained marginalized due to a derogation. Last year, however, the government applied to the EU council of ministers for an end to the derogation and Irish will now become a full working language in the EU by 2022.
English is the most spoken language in Europe but is only an official language of England, Ireland and Malta. Thanks to EU laws, however, which only allow a country to pick one official language, Irish is Ireland’s official EU nominated language and Maltese is Malta’s official language, despite the Irish-language skills of some Irish MEPs not being up to the standard needed to carry out their work through the language.
Polish MEP Hübne has said she is confidant this rule will change allowing both Malta and Ireland to have English as a second working language.
“I personally believe that we will find unanimity to change the rule on this ... and then we will have from the Irish not only Gaelic but also English or from the Maltese not only Maltese but also English,” she said.
Ireland hasn't registered English as first language in the EU so MEPs may have to work through Irish after Brexit ���� pic.twitter.com/JNN36hcnxc— Colette Browne (@colettebrowne) June 27, 2016
According to research complete by OpenWorld, Ireland could expect as much as a permanent 3.1% loss in GDP by 2030 if the UK fail to leave the EU on good terms.
This could be reduced to a 1.1% percent loss if negotiations are more favorable.
H/T: The Express