Fianna Fáil insiders hint at Martin’s exit plan

Fianna Fáil rebels believe that Micheál Martin knows that the writing is on the wall for his leadership – and he will bow to a ‘significantly truncated’ term as Taoiseach to avoid a ‘bloodbath’ in the party, Extra.ie has been briefed.

Senior figures on all sides of the febrile leadership debate that continues under the surface briefed Extra.ie over the weekend that there is an indication from the Taoiseach’s camp that avoidance of a ‘bloodbath’ and ‘the best interests of the party’ are primary in his thoughts.

There was extraordinary equivalence in the briefings from both opponents and supporters, which indicates there has been significant communication on a timeline for Mr Martin’s departure, post the Jim Gavin debacle.

A senior insider that is respected by both leadership loyalists and opponents told Extra.ie last night: ‘I think the dissent has mellowed down now. Equally, I think now there’s a recognition that Micheál [Martin] is not going to lead us into the next election.’

There is also universal acceptance in the highest echelons of Fianna Fáil that Mr Martin will not stay on as leader of the party at the end of his term as Taoiseach, which is due to end when he hands the office over to Simon Harris in December 2027.

The senior Fianna Fáiler said: ‘He’s not going to be the Tánaiste again, but listen, we don’t want to have a f*****g bloodbath. People have become more reasonable about it, you know.

‘Micheál has had remarkable success,’ said the FF source.

‘I think his priority would be to do what’s right for FF. That’s just my own reading of it. We’ll wait to see what happens.’

The main point of contention, even in the anti-Martin camp, is the likely timeline of his now widely accepted departure.

In the wake of the cataclysmic withdrawal of Mr Gavin from the presidential campaign – which is primarily blamed on Mr Martin – the Taoiseach’s allies told Extra.ie that he should be allowed to stay on until the end of Ireland’s presidency of the EU, which ends in December 2026.

However, while rebels who spoke to Extra.ie last night said that they are agreeing to hold off action until after the Christmas break, they say ‘all bets are off in the New Year’.

‘Listen, the errors around Gavin and the humiliation of the party are just historic errors by the leader that can’t be erased – ever,’ said a FF rebel TD.

‘So while we hear his pleas to stay on until December of next year I believe that is just a mental belief, which is ignoring the influence of events.’

The biggest event on the horizon is the Galway West by-election to fill the seat of Catherine Connolly. This is widely accepted as the first dangerous obstacle that Mr Martin must overcome.

Cabinet sources told Extra.ie last night that the Government will try and delay the by-election until May of next year, which would give Mr Martin breathing space in the lead up to the July assumption of the EU presidency.

However, with the power to move the writ for the by-election resting with any member of Dáil Éireann, and by convention the technical group that Ms Connolly was a member of, the Government will have to vote down an early holding of the poll.

‘It would suit us all to have the by election approaching summer,’ said a Cabinet minister.

‘We can manipulate the timetable, by calling the poll in the spring and holding it in May. However, yes, we’d have to force it to the vote in the Dail. There would be fears that the Opposition would turn it into a Dáil speaking row level clash. That just brings more heat and focus on Micheál.’

Governments traditionally lose by-elections and it would appear the only hope for an FF win would be if former minister Eamon Ó Cuív returned to stand. He didn’t dismiss the idea when approached by Extra.ie last week: ‘Well, sure, it will all be revealed in God’s good time.

‘Whatever I discuss will be discussed with the Comhairle Dáil Ceantair, but they’ll follow a process,’ he added.

However, Mr Ó Cuív also indicated that he believes Mr Martin’s term as leader is coming to an end, so his election would merely increase the level of dissent in the parliamentary party.

Rebel TDs who spoke to Extra.ie this weekend said that they believe Mr Martin is so weakened that events and pressure will see him stand down in the New Year, therefore they do not plan to table a motion of no confidence before Christmas, a traditionally quiet political period.

A TD who is perceived as representing the centre ground of FF told Extra.iethat members of the parliamentary party had interpreted a section of Mr Martin’s speech at the inauguration of President Connolly last Tuesday as conceding he would step down as Taoiseach and leader of FF next December.

Mr Martin said ‘As Taoiseach, I look forward to working with President Connolly in the time ahead… as we look forward to hosting the EU Presidency in the second half of 2026.’

A TD interpreted this as a public plea for mercy.

‘Listen, I may be overblowing it, but that statement tallies with what your newspaper has been told by his Cabinet, that he should be allowed to see out the presidency in the second half of next year.

‘So, the internal disruption and public statements have had their effect, and I would see that as an achievement, that the Taoiseach’s own people conceded that even December 2027 isn’t a feasible target anymore for him.

‘Yet, to be asking to be left on until December 2026 is in itself a sign of weakness. To be honest, I can’t see that happening.’

The Fianna Fáil Cabinet, the rebels, the dwindling band of loyalists, and Mr Martin himself accept that a ‘bloodbath’ has to be avoided.

Just a few weeks ago Mr Martin was saying again he would lead the party into the next general election in late 2029.

The review into the party’s nomination process for the presidential election was supposed to have been delivered to Mr Martin last Wednesday, November 12, before a parliamentary party meeting.

It was announced to the shock of a parliamentary party meeting last week that it would not be delivered then.

However Extra.ie has learned that the investigating committee was told weeks before that Mr Martin would give his pivotal interview on Thursday, November 13 last, which he, in fact, did.

‘That means that the delay in the report had been baked in from the start. That’s fine, we’ll get the report and it can only be a whitewash – unless it calls for Micheál to resign.

‘Then in the New Year we will see. Micheál has constantly made a play down the years of doing what’s best for the interests of FF, and none of us doubt the sincerity of all that,’ the TD said.

‘But Barry Cowen and Dara Calleary had to go [from Cabinet] because they were causing a distraction. At a doorstep [press conference] the Taoiseach was stressing all the important work the Government has to do, while dismissing speculation over his future. Then, the best way for all that to end is for him to step down. And the speculation will not end.’

* This article was originally published on Extra.ie.