US midterm election results unlikely to change trade policy

Simon MacAllister, Co-Head of Geopolitical Strategy at EY Ireland, said the result would significantly alter the balance of power in Washington for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term.

With Democrats taking control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Trump administration is likely to face greater congressional scrutiny, while securing agreement on major domestic policy changes will become more difficult.

However, MacAllister said the implications for Irish businesses would be more limited in areas such as international trade.

“What is important for Irish businesses, however, is what the election is unlikely to change. The White House will continue to have significant influence over US trade, tariffs, and foreign policy, so we should not expect the election result alone to fundamentally change direction in these areas,” he said.

He warned that the transatlantic relationship could continue to come under pressure, increasing the importance of Ireland’s position as a link between the US and Europe.

MacAllister also highlighted the potential for Congress to take a more active role in shaping artificial intelligence and technology policy, including greater scrutiny of data centers, export controls and data protection.

These developments will be particularly important for Ireland given the scale of US investment in the Irish economy.

He advised companies operating across both markets to monitor policy developments closely and assess the potential implications for supply chains, investment and sourcing decisions.

“Irish businesses have demonstrated considerable adaptability through a period that has been characterized by significant change in global trade,” he said.

“The priority is to build on that experience, maintaining flexibility to respond as the landscape evolves, while continuing to pursue opportunities in the US market.

“The strength and depth of the US-Ireland economic relationship remain an important foundation, and businesses that plan for a range of scenarios will be best placed to navigate change and take advantage of opportunities as they emerge.”

* This article was originally published on BusinessPlus.ie.