Fine Gael says the public will pay billions for a United Ireland

Fine Gael has insisted that voters in the Republic of Ireland are willing to foot the bill for a United Ireland, even if that bill runs as high as €25 billion in the first year alone. The claim follows the publication of the party's Blueprint for a Unified Ireland at its Ard Fheis (assembly) over the weekend, a document that models four possible designs for reunification and sets out what each one would cost the Irish exchequer.

The economic modeling was carried out by Professor Stephen Kinsella, an economist who acts as an adviser to the Tánaiste (Deputy Prime Minister). His findings put the cost to the Irish exchequer in year one at somewhere between roughly €3.2 billion and €25 billion, with the final figure depending on how unification is designed and what deal is struck with the British government. In the most adverse scenario, the annual bill reaches €41.2 billion by year 25.

Kinsella stresses that there is "no single fixed cost of unity," according to the report. The single biggest variable in the early years is whether London continues to carry accrued pensions and debt interest, a choice worth anywhere from €4 billion to €24.8 billion.

The analysis sets out four designs for a unified island, labeled Unitary, Federal, Managed Integration, and Higher Cost. Under Managed Integration, pay and welfare in Northern Ireland would rise to Irish levels over 15 years, with €1.5 billion a year of extra investment in the first decade. That model would cost €24.1 billion per year by year 25 in the highest case and €4.2 billion in the lowest. The Higher Cost model, where northern pay and welfare jump to southern levels on day one with no additional investment, produces the €41.2 billion figure.

Despite the scale of those numbers, Fine Gael is betting that the public will not be frightened off. Emer Currie, the assistant government chief whip who assembled the blueprint, dismissed the idea that the price tag would sink support when she spoke at the Ard Fheis in remarks reported by the Irish Examiner.

"I think people are prepared to pay the cost for a unified island," she said.

"They want to know what is behind those costs and what they would be paying for. There are discussions about healthcare that need to be had, the differences between the North and the South, what's important to people, education."

Currie added that a wide variety of issues still need to be addressed, and argued that the appetite for the discussion already exists among voters.

The blueprint pairs the costings with a set of concrete asks. It calls for a new junior minister for North-South relations working inside a Constitutional Planning Unit in the Department of an Taoiseach (Prime Minister), and for a dedicated sovereign wealth fund, the Future Unified Island Fund, to absorb the costs of any transition. It also wants the budget for the government's Reconciliation Fund doubled and a Standing Constitutional Forum established so that the debate can take place before any referendum is called. Other proposals, including extending presidential voting rights to citizens in Northern Ireland and strengthening northern representation in the Seanad (Senate), are flagged as needing wider agreement.

The document lands shortly after Taoiseach Micheál Martin floated a Future Studies Initiative to oversee research into scenarios for unification, which suggests both coalition parties are now moving on the same track.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin.

Harris, who flagged the blueprint earlier in the year, said that anyone who aspires to a united Ireland has to do more than simply advocate for it.

"We must be willing to ask the difficult questions, confront the practical challenges, and undertake the necessary preparations for the future," he said in comments carried by the Press Association. He added that unity cannot be only about redrawing constitutional arrangements and must instead be about building trust and a shared future in which every identity and tradition is respected.

The second strand of research, from Professor Deirdre Heenan, argues that drawing on the experience of Brexit, planning for unity is not the same thing as supporting it and is simply good governance. Heenan also found an almost unanimous view that the current arrangements at Stormont are not working.

The reaction from the opposition was notably warm. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said the proposals deserve serious consideration and urged the Tánaiste to go further, telling the Press Association, "I encourage Simon Harris to build on this initiative by engaging with those of us in the opposition, parties in the North, civic society across the island and our global Irish diaspora." SDLP leader Claire Hanna also welcomed the document, describing a real momentum now behind the conversation.