Gulf Stream on brink of collapse – What could this mean for Ireland?

New research from British and Dutch scientists, has shown that the warm water source, also known as the North Atlantic Drift, has been weakening for much longer than previously thought – and it could be on the verge of total collapse due to climate change.

The new research has shown that due to overheating in the Arctic, the melting of the polar ice caps is causing a huge increase in fresh water rushing into the Atlantic, and its thought this could be enough to have catastrophic consequences for Western Europe.

The Gulf Stream is a major ocean current that moves warm surface water from Mexico northwards across the Atlantic towards Europe and is one of the most important natural weather systems, keeping Northern and Western Europe warm.

Unfortunately, scientists say this new research points towards a "tipping point" for the sensitive warm water current, heralding its total collapse.

When it collapses, it could plummet Europe into a deep freeze reminiscent of the 2004 Hollywood film "The Day After Tomorrow". 

The iceberg lagoon at Jökulsárlón in Vatnajökull National Park, Iceland
In reaction to the study, which was published earlier this summer, Met Éireann said "This research adds to a body of evidence showing that an Amoc (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse would be a high-impact, transformative event. The concern is justified because the consequences, as modelled here, would be severe."

The meteorological agency went on to say "People should be concerned about the risk that climate change poses to major Earth systems like the Amoc,’ as this paper underscores the severity of what is at stake. However, it is not a prediction that Ireland is headed for an ice age in the coming decades."

But what does it mean for Ireland? Will it mean our winters will get much colder and last for much longer?

A report on this subject in the Irish Times earlier this year said that "Specifically for Dublin, the scientists at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and Utrecht University predict 32 per cent of days per year will go below zero – 95 days more than pre-industrial times."

They conclude 37 days per year will only reach a maximum temperature of below zero in Dublin – 36 days more than pre-industrial levels.

But Belfast could be hit even harder, with the research predicting the city will have 41 percent of the year below zero.

Met Éireann said the figures mentioned by the researchers for Dublin and Belfast should be interpreted with "extreme caution".

* This article was originally published on Extra.ie.