Catherine Connolly.RollingNews.ie
Catherine Connolly currently holds a strong lead over Heather Humphreys in the Presidential Election, according to a new Business Post/Red C poll.
The survey states that the Independent candidate is supported by 36% of participants.
Meanwhile, Humphreys has the support of 25%.
Jim Gavin, who pulled out of the race but remains on the ballot paper, still holds 12% with a substantial 27% undecided.
When Gavin’s first preferences are redistributed based on second preference patterns, Connolly’s support rises to 39%, while Humphreys’ increases to 31%.
The remaining 30% either remain undecided or give non-transferable preferences.
The online survey of 1,001 people was conducted between October 2 and 7. The margin of error in the poll is +/-3%.
Heather Humphreys. (RollingNews.ie)
This means that Gavin was still in the race when many participated in the survey, since he withdrew his campaign on October 5.
The Fianna Fáil candidate pulled out following the controversy surrounding his failure to repay a tenant over €3,000 16 years ago.
However, Gavin’s name will still be on the ballot paper and votes for himwill still be counted.
This is because under the Presidential Elections Act, a candidate may only withdraw up to a certain point and that deadline had already passed.
Although Jim Gavin has publicly announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, his name will still appear on the ballot paper on voting day.
This is because under the Presidential Elections Act, a candidate may only withdraw up to a certain point (before the ‘ruling on nominations’) — that deadline has passed.
Jim Gavin. (RollingNews.ie)
Some postal ballots have already been printed and sent out, including Gavin’s name, so there is no practical or legal way to remove him entirely from all ballots at this stage.
If a ballot shows Gavin as first preference, that counts as a vote for him (provided it carries no identifying marks).
If Gavin is eliminated in later counts, his transfer votes (i.e. second preferences) will be redistributed according to voters’ indicated preferences.
In that sense, his candidacy could still influence the outcome by shifting votes to other candidates.
These transfers become important if no candidate surpasses the 50 % + 1 threshold on the first count and if the margin between the remaining top two candidates is less than the pool of Gavin’s votes.
In a statement issued last Sunday evening, Gavin said he had ‘cause to reflect.’
It followed reports regarding his failure to register a tenancy with the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB).
He said at the time: ‘When I announced my intention to contest the presidential election, I did so in a spirit of lifelong public service and a love of country. That has always been my sole motivation.’
* This article was originally published on Extra.ie.