ITIC predicts 5-7% growth in tourism revenue for 2026

Irish tourism leaders are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for 2026, despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, according to the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation’s (ITIC) end-of-year review.

ITIC forecasts tourism revenue to grow by between 5% and 7% over the next 12 months.

This projection assumes a stable global economy and improved air access to Ireland.

The organisation notes that growth will also depend heavily on pro-tourism and pro-enterprise Government policies, including the lifting of the Dublin Airport passenger cap, continued support for regional airports, cost mitigation measures, appropriate levels of investment, and the easing of capacity constraints across the sector.

Air and sea access into Ireland is described as positive for the early part of 2026, a factor ITIC highlights as a key indicator of overall tourism performance.

Internationally, inbound travel to Northern Europe, which includes Ireland, is forecast by Tourism Economics to grow by 4.7% in 2026.

The strength of key source markets will remain critical, with the IMF projecting modest global economic growth.

There may be some cost relief on the horizon for air travel, with Goldman Sachs forecasting that the price of oil will fall to $56 per barrel in 2026, down from approximately $64 currently.

However, ITIC notes that the US market could be influenced by the 250th anniversary of US independence and the country’s hosting of the FIFA World Cup, potentially distorting normal travel patterns and transatlantic air fares.

Looking ahead, ITIC stresses that uncertainty remains a defining feature of the tourism outlook, with political, economic and societal developments likely to influence demand.

The confederation hopes 2026 will deliver revenue growth across both domestic and international markets, while also addressing gaps in official tourism data through the adoption of new intelligence sources to inform policy decisions.

While costs will continue to put pressure on tourism businesses, ITIC highlights the need to maintain strong demand and tackle capacity constraints.

Priorities include incentivising new registered accommodation, developing fair regulation for short-term rentals, accelerating infrastructure delivery from internal connectivity to EV charging, and lifting the passenger cap at Ireland’s main airport to enable long-delayed capital investment.

* This article was originally published on BusinessPlus.ie.