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Ireland should default says Guardian newspaper

Influential British paper says debt level “unsustainable”


Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan
Photo by REUTERS

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Ireland should default on its debts says an editorial in the influential Guardian newspaper today.

The Guardian compared the deal that Ireland has done on its debt to the Versailles treaty which ruined Germany after World War One and they say “the debt is unsustainable.”

This is a “eurozone bailout that bears a close resemblance to the Treaty of Versailles," the newspaper wrote.

The editorial states in part “One thing is certain about next week's Irish budget: it will be ugly. In order to reduce the country's debt (heading to anywhere up to 100% of national income), Brian Lenihan is set to announce further spending cuts and painful tax rises. This is the huge bill the Irish will have to pay over many years – and in large part it has been racked up by a reckless and foolish banking sector. Which prompts the question: why should Dublin not default on its debt? For fear of unpopularity? Recent opinion polls show that the majority of Irish voters would support a default. Principled objection?"

The editorial notes that the government will “end up paying something like one pound of every five it takes in in taxes on its debt. That is unfair and – going by bond-market analysts, who expect a default sooner or later – unsustainable.”

The editorial notes that “A default does not mean walking away from all the debt for ever, but Dublin declaring it cannot keep paying back all of these loans at face value."

"Then it should renegotiate how much those loans are really worth and set a new schedule of repayments. This will cost Irish ministers some pride but, going by IMF research on other countries that have done just this, not an awful lot financially over the longer term.”


Nster.com


15 Comments

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Simply renounce the bank guarantee - Ireland as a nation would not be defaulting but trans-national banks. Let the EU/IMF bail out the banks directly if they want - it shouldn't be the Irish people.
seamusmoore: What a dumb post by you. What you call "de valera economic theory" has not ben in operation in Ireland for many decades, probably since the 1950s. You can't blame the economics of mid 20th century for the disaster of 2010. What a lot of nonsense.
samsimpson By "the suicidally low taxation system", you must be referring to the corporate rate of 12.5%, not the individual rate of 41%. Assuming you are, may I conclude you propose tripling that rate to the high 30's. Go ahead, then watch Intel, Microsoft and company follow Dell to Gdansk, Poland. If the Dell Limerick plant represented a loss of 2% of the Irish GDP, the loss of Intel would whack about 5% minimum from GDP. The result: more unemployment along with concurrent higher dole spending, but also less revenue for the govt to pay those on the "live register". Sounds like a winner to me! Alas, de valera economic theory will never die in Ireland.
samsimpson: May I congratulate you for articulating a fair and reasonable course of action. The Irish should definitely pay their legitimate debts, as indeed should all of us. But the Europeans are demanding war reparations from Ireland, even though there was no war. Ireland is only responsible for the debts that its government ran up, and these could be reduced in just 3 or 4 years belt tightening.
We must separate the Bank debts - which were basically the result of a corrupt elite who gambled and lost - and sovereign debt - which is largely the result of a suicidally low taxation system which became subsidised by property taxes. Default on the bank loans, which are both unpayable and not in the least the responsibility of ordinary Irish people, and arrange a deal on sovereign debt, which is managable. And if this IMF deal is followed, bring on the bloody revolution.
Pull out of the Euro, the EU…and then what? If the Euro/EU collapse we really will be in unknown territory, and things could get a lot worse…witness the break up of Yugoslavia in the 90’s as a mini-version of what could follow; hyper inflation, ethnic cleansing and worse.
Pull out of the Euro, The EC, Whatever it takes Please we have now been made into Europe's Patsy How much worse could it be. Our poorest people at present are paying Profits and Gains to some of the Richest organs on Earth, through the Guarantees given to senior bondholders of Anglo Irish by shithead Lenihan and pig face Cowen...No insult meant to pigs.
Unless, of course, you mean default on the original bank loans and then default on the EU and IMF loans as well. Ace!
Hang on, Jaser. They have to get the money first before they default on the repayment. Which means they probably shouldn't announce their intention in advance. Just saying ...
Default Now....Just Do It !
It could be the way out. But it's complicated stuff and the consequences could prove severe. Proceed with caution, would be my suggestion. Ireland should pay what it can and seek to re-negotiate the terms. Default should only be a last resort.
For the benefit of readers from afar, The Guardian is an influential English/British newspaper, with a ‘left of center’ stance on most issues. It is unique in terms of UK Newspaper ownership in that it is controlled by a foundation, so does not have any Media Moguls agenda to support. It has a formidable role call of columnists/contributors, and a widely read online presence. The term ‘Guardian reader’ is used as a term of abuse in rightwing British circles, but its independent status, and tie-in with an influential Sunday paper called ‘The Observer’ makes it a ‘Must read’ for many politicos. As regards this editorial, it will make uncomfortable reading for the government, and will be seized on by some of the opposition ….the Guardian has a generally positive stance on current UK/Irish matters.
Calling the Guardian an influential newspaper is a misnomer and misleading the public. The Guardian is an ideological rag and their opinion on Ireland defaulting is also a rag. Where would Ireland will get financial help if they default on the IMF/EU loans ??? Default would be financial suicide for Ireland.
The comparison with Versailles is apt. Ireland is paying war reparations for a war that she never fought. It simply cannot continue thus, regardless of what Ireland's imbecilic politicians say.
GO FOR IT!!!!
 




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