While much attention is being paid to the trouncing of Fianna Fail and the Greens in the Irish elections, one result in particular could have profound consequences for this country’s relationship with the European Union.

This was the failure of Declan Ganley, leader of Libertas, to gain a seat in the three-seater North West constituency in the European election. The established political leaders in Ireland could hardly disguise their glee as they learned of the setback for the entrepeneur turned leading Eurosceptic.

Last June Ganley led the ‘no’ campaign in the referendum in which the Republic rejected the Lisbon Treaty, thus ensuring that it could not be implemented by the EU. A majority of Irish voters is now apparently convinced that EU membership saved the country from a fate like Iceland’s, and is less inclined to snub Brussels again.

The prospects of a ‘yes’ vote in a second referendum on the treaty this autumn are now looking good – especially as another leader of the anti-treaty campaign last year, Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald, also lost her European seat, in the Dublin constituency.

Ganley was initally awarded 70,638 of 510,932 votes cast in North West, a credible showing but one that did not gain as much as might be expected from the nationwide impulse to register a protest against Brian Cowen’s government.

The Libertas leader caused a delay in the North West count when he questioned how the boxes were opened, implying that bundles of his votes had gone to other candidates. It trned out that 3,000 votes for another contestant had got into his bundle so he ended up 3,000 votes worse off. Conceding defeat, Ganley said he was bowing out of politics and would not campaign in the next Lisbon referendum.

The controversy over the abuse of children in religious-run industrial schools may have damaged him, as anger at the Catholic Church likely diminished the conservative Catholic vote which was thought to be rallying behind the Libertas leader.

He might also have been tarnished by the company he was keeping in Europe – many of the candidates who joined Libertas belonged to fringe right-wing groups, something the pro-Europe media was not slow to point out. Both of the Libertas candidates who contested two of the other three European constituencies, Raymond O’Malley in East and Caroline Simons in Dublin, got only around one per cent of first preferences.

Up to last month Ganley was busy criss-crossing the continent to create Libertas as the first pan-European party, described on its website as a “fresh and exciting new political force sweeping across Europe”. He secured the support of Lech Walesa of Poland, who spoke, for a fee, at the first Libertas conference in Rome, where he described the party and Ganley as “a force for good” in the world.

At one point there was talk of 100 Libertas seats in the European parliament. However the party totally failed to become a force of any kind “sweeping across Europe” and only one of 531 Libertas runners in 14 EU states will take a seat in Europe. Ganley promised to step down if defeated, and his leadership of a future ‘no’ campaign has therefore been compromised. 

The one hope for those who still oppose the Lisbon Treaty because of legitimate concerns on social and defence issues is that the government of Brian Cowen which will again have to lead the ‘yes’ campaign is now seriously weakened.

Fianna Fail received the lowest share of the vote in its history, and the small Green Party was just about wiped out. This coalition is now an opposition-in-waiting, and while continuing in office is likely to provoke many voters into voting no to just about anything it suggests.