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by Niall O'Dowd

New research shows Catholic majority now likely in Northern Ireland - New figures show trend is continuing and now inevitable

Posted on Thursday, January 05, 2012 at 07:08 AM
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Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness, First Minister Peter Robinson, Taoiseach Enda Kenny (Credit:  NGNS)
In a stunning column that turns the future on its head, Irish Times columnist Gerry Moriarty has shown that a Catholic majority in Northern Ireland will occur much faster than had previously been thought.

There has been a clear and inexorable pattern of Catholic population increasing while the Protestant population declines.

However, Moriarty presents it in a new and stark way and asks several critical questions.

Key of course is what will the upcoming Catholic majority mean for Northern Ireland?

But first to the facts and figures.

Moriarty opens his column by saying:

"The British and Irish governments and the people of Northern Ireland are facing the prospect – and sooner than most people might think – of how to manage a transformed constitutional situation where the majority in the North are likely to be from a Catholic background."

He goes on:

"The figures are revealed in the statistics: there are now significantly more Catholics than Protestants in nursery, primary, second- and third-level education in Northern Ireland. If that trend continues, and it’s difficult to see a reason why it should not, then in another generation or so the majority population should be Catholic or from a Catholic background – people of voting age, most of whose immediate antecedents are nationalist in their political outlook.

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He pointed out that figures from Northern Ireland’s Department of Education for 2010/11 show 120,415 Protestants and 163,693 Catholics in the North’s schools.

Those figures that is a breakdown of 57.6 per cent Catholic, 42.4 per cent Protestant.....figures for 2009/10 obtained from the Higher Education Statistics Agency show that at university level the trend has continued

"In total... at third level there are 20,995 students (59.3 per cent) from a Catholic background and 14,410 (40.7 per cent) from a Protestant background." Moriarty writes

In the 2001 census the figures showed Protestants at 53.1 per cent and Catholics at 43.8 per cent. The 2011 census is expected to show that gap is much narrower.By the 2021 census the change will be dramatic

In the last election 48 per cent voted for Unionist parties and 42 per cent for nationalists. The rest voted cross community, mainly Alliance.

Of course, there is no certainty that Catholics would vote for a United Ireland, indeed, many say they would not.

However, with Scotland trembling on the edge of major devolution and conceivably outright independence, the old United Kingdom is not what it once was.

One could say the same about the Irish Republic of course, and many Catholics, now that they share power in Northern Ireland would hardly want to join up with a country in the throes of a terrible economic malaise.

But how a Catholic majority would work out is unpredictable. But it seems certain that it will happen within a generation.

The Protestant state for a Protestant people created against the wishes of Catholics corralled in 1921 into the new state may find itself on the ash heap in the future.

As Yeats might have said, All changed, changed utterly.

See more: Irish Catholic Church, News from Ireland



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100 Comments

15 - 100 | See all comments

seanomelbourne | Jan 10, 2012, 05:59 PM EST
If the pre-Norman Irish independent state was aligned with Rome who were the Vatican appointed bishops? The Irish church was appointing it's own bishops as do the copts today.The "Celtic" church had a commonality with the orthodox church in liturgy and feast days.

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ancavker | Jan 10, 2012, 11:08 AM EST
sirpeter: The British government and the BBC no longer use British Isles either. They use Britain and Ireland; as it should be.

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sirpeter | Jan 10, 2012, 09:34 AM EST
@lokionline.It's the British Isles AND Ireland.The Irish government don't use that term "British Isles" In the name of mutual respect.Don't use the term.

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lokionline | Jan 09, 2012, 04:33 PM EST
A new relationship between the nations of the British Isles is slowly emerging. The dominance of the English is being replaced with a growing mutual respect for all the nations in our isles. It will be fascinating to watch this process unfold.

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abhainn | Jan 09, 2012, 10:52 AM EST
It has been accepted in Ireland for many years that this demographic reversal, whether it happens sooner or later, will not necessarily lead to a unified Ireland because, even before the recent economic collapse of the Republic, many Catholic Northerners had Unionist rather than Nationalist political preferences, despite all the killing and propaganda to the contrary by the IRA gangsters.

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AMWilson | Jan 09, 2012, 03:45 AM EST
Gearoid, Where did I say that the pre-Norman Irish Church had "no connection to Rome"? I wasn't implying that it was somehow a completely autonomous entity, but it was obviously doing its own thing enough (which you conceded) to provide at least superficial justification for the 1155 papal bull, which was intended to (among other things) bring the Irish Church under more direct control. But I didn't use the word "isolated", and I certainly didn't use the loaded term "Celtic", so there's not really any "notion" that you need to "relieve" me of.

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Gearoid4 | Jan 08, 2012, 09:28 PM EST
@AMWilson, There was no separate 'Celtic' Irish Catholic Church before the Norman Invasion. Experts who study the early centuries of Irish Christianity will relieve you of the notion that there was a completely isolated "Church" within these Islands with no connection to Rome. It is generally accepted that although there was some superficial differences regarding customs and the dating of Easter etc, the Irish Church was an integral part of the Latin Church in Europe.

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sirpeter | Jan 08, 2012, 07:29 PM EST
Father Georgina.Give FallsRNat absolution there for his sins.Still laughing that Georgie Boy wants to become a priest.I can understand the problems of the Catholic Church.Can you imagine all the social misfits it must attract.Did I tell ya Georgie Boy that the Catholic Church is calling ya to the Cistercian Order.Now you will have to take a vow of silence.But what better way to serve humanity.Go for it Georgie.You have the calling.hahahaha

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sirpeter | Jan 08, 2012, 07:02 PM EST
Fallsers.That's a pure fail of a comment.Always happy to deliberately mislead.It's all about blaming the Catholics in any way that might work with you Seamus.We all know what causes sexual transmitted diseases and why they are on the rise.Bonking everything that moves Seamus.That will do it every time.

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Gearoid4 | Jan 08, 2012, 05:09 PM EST
Please FallsRNat, do not use that old Canard about the Catholic Church spreading so much misery because of Her stand against contraception and condoms in relation to AIDs. There is a general pattern of countries experiencing a fall in demographics below the standard set for fertility replacement levels. Contraception involves the dubious disconnection between the loving union of the couple and the sexual act which God had ordained in His Natural Law. It means that a couple ignores the will of Christ in His Laws. Also the Church is at the forefront of efforts to combat AIDs in sub-Saharan Africa and other places. Thus Church organizations are best placed to tell what is best for those who are effected by it. African prelates and priests will tell you that over-reliance on condoms without any other measures has failed to halt the epidemic. The main cause of the spread of this terrible condition is the amoral behavior of those who indulge in risky behavior with multiple partners. Seamomelbourne, Read Matthew 16:19 where Peter was unambiguously given the keys of authority to lead the Church in Christ's absence through the symbol of the Keys. Barneyjo, you make some interesting and thoughtful points in your usual articulate and effective way.

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ciaradexy | Jan 08, 2012, 03:34 PM EST
Ah Georgie seriously, stop making stuff up! Its when I come across people like you I become really glad your great great great great great granny left these shores. Its such a relief! Phew! You just repeat the same old crap over and over so much so that you seem to start believing your nonsense! Must be the alzheimers, bless.

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GeorgeDillon | Jan 08, 2012, 03:02 PM EST
sirpeter, I'd give you absolution, regardless of those nasty little habits you have. Since you have a mental age of seven or less you can't be held responsible. Ciaradexty, too, she told us she has a chronological age of 35, but her mental age is clearly about a fifth of that. Even though our Church would not encourage it, her resolution not to have children is something we all appreciate.

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seamus60 | Jan 08, 2012, 02:30 PM EST
Married priests ? Can`t see it. Should they be allowed to marry and practice what they preach the financial burden of very large families would only diminish the well stashed wealth of their employers.

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sirpeter | Jan 08, 2012, 12:22 PM EST
Edit for the pedantic. > me!! laugh.

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ciaradexy | Jan 08, 2012, 12:21 PM EST
He'd look great in one of those dunce caps but Id say hes well used to them by now anyway!

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