Just how confusing is this Kentucky Derby field?
Calvn Borel's mount Twice the Appeal, 30/1 under any other jockey, is just 7/1 and second favorite in the early betting.
That is testament to the Churchill Downs fans love and respect for Borel who has won three of the last four derbies.
But it is also a testament to how confusing and mixed up this year's derby field looks.
With the withdrawal of Uncle Mo it becomes even more of a crap shoot and bettors on track on Friday were making it clear that Borel the jockey is a better bet to win the derby than most of the horses in the race.
I will be amazed if Twice the Appeal wins the race but then again I was astonished that Mine That Bird won at 50/1 two years ago with Borel on board.
Bettors are saying 'never say never' when it comes to Borel but the good news for me is that the money on Borel makes better odds for others.
As I have written I really like Soldat currently 17/1 and with the withdrawal of Uncle Mo even more so.
Uncle Mo would have been one of those wanting to stalk the early speed which is what Soldat will likely be doing.
Soldat now also has the highest Beyer in the field at 103 from an allowance race at Gulfstream earlier this year.
I pick him on top with Stay Thirsty and Mucho Macho Man in the exotics along with Pants on Fire and outsider Derby Kitten who I think can run a big one.
The derby jinx on Todd Pletcher has continued with Uncle Mo's departure and it is the second year in a row that his favored horse has been withdrawn.
Stay Thirsty is not a bad substitute however, and I expect him to run a big race.
Here are the odds as of Saturday morning
Dialed In (9-2)
Twice the Appeal (7-1)
Pants on Fire (9-1)
Midnight Interlude (10-1)
Mucho Macho Man (12-1)
Stay Thirsty (17-1)
Master of Hounds (18-1)
Animal Kingdom (24-1)
Watch Me Go (29-1)
Derby Kitten (29-1)
Brilliant Speed (30-1)
Decisive Moment (42-1)
Comma to the Top (43-1)
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