|China's rising economy|
China is rising.
Their economy is expanding at a velocity the likes of which the world has never seen. China’s infrastructure is being developed at an astounding pace. Its manufacturing and technology capacity is set to lead the world. The greatest concentration of wealth and world currency control will soon be the purview of the Chinese.
What does this mean for the developed world?
China’s dominance will eventually lead to a slow and steady decline in the standard of living for most of the inhabitants of Europe, Japan and the US, sparing perhaps the super-rich. This doesn’t mean that Europe or America will loose all wealth and power. There is no indication that China seeks military confrontation or political dominance of the West. It simply means that China is on track to become the economic and military superpower in the 21st Century, most of which will occur over the next 25 years.
There is little countries of the West are either able or willing to do. In the US for example, the cost of government at all levels is out of control. Special interests control lawmaking often resulting in the kind of spending which often does little for society as a whole. This special interest power is unlikely to be relinquished. The cost of the American military, government work forces, litigation and healthcare is simply unsustainable. Americans, like their European counterparts, pay far too much for far too little. Americans in particular consume more than they create, which leads to an ever increasing debt – a debt now funded in large part by Chinese wealth. American wars are actually financed by Chinese money.
This of course is nothing new. Over the past twenty years, globalization and free trade has led to a world economy now dominated by China. This shift in economic power does account for higher levels of unemployment and stagnant or declining wages in the West. It is unrealistic to believe that the next generation of Europeans or Americans will be able to retain the economic wealth gained over the second half of the last century.
The Jeannie is out of the bottle. China and other parts of the Third World will continue to grow and claim their share of the World’s resources and riches. The Chinese military, unlike the West, is not spread over vast parts of the world. War is not the centerpiece of their global strategy. Their fighting forces are focused far more for defense of their region, requiring substantially less in resources than the US provides in its strategy for military dominance. Instead, the Chinese are investing in their monetary might to spread their ever increasing sphere of influence.
The Western World cannot alter the blueprint that has been at work, neither with culture or military prowess. The best the West can do is change course and plan to be an important part of a world now destined to be dominated by the billion plus Chinese. Such planning would require a fundamental change in the West’s approach.
I am not hopeful.