Why Catholic vote is likely to decide presidential election this year

Catholics have chosen winning candidate in nine out of ten last elections

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President Obama, Cardinal Dolan and GOP Candidate Mitt Romney at the Al Smith charity event in NYC recently

Photo by AP

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At least 47million Catholics will vote Tuesday and how they do so will decide this election.

Catholics represent 25 per cent of all registered voters. and they are vital to both parties.

In an insightful article in the Philadelphia Inquirer, John Baer made clear that the Catholic vote is vital.As he points out “Catholics after all are bellwether voters. There are lots of them.. they represent almost one fourth of all registered voters . They are important to both parties; Obama carried Catholics in ‘08 (54-45) and Bush did in ‘04 (52-47) even though John Kerry was Catholic.”

As Baer points out in the last ten presidential elections, Catholics voted for the winner and the only exception was Al Gore who won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College.

In nine surveys of Catholic workers Romney is ahead by a narrow margin while Obama is ahead in two of the polls.

The fact that Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, both Irish Catholics, may neutralize each other as an issue.

Catholics of course do not vote as a block, the last time they did so was in 1960 when John F.Kennedy became the first Catholic to win the presidency.

But several church leaders have tried to influence the debate.Bishop David RIken in Green Bay stated voting for candidates who support abortion or gay marriage “put your own soul in jeopardy”

Philadelphia Archbishop Charles Chaput stated “It’s very important for Catholics to make distinctions when voting that they never support intrinsic evils like abortion  which is evil under all circumstances.”

A Pew research poll earlier this year showed Catholics were 56 per cent in favor of Romney’s positions but the gap has narrowed since.

Just like what has happened in the election generally the margin for Catholic voters may be razor thin.

As he points out “Catholics, after all, are bellwether voters. There are lots of them (an estimated 47 million voted in 2008). They represent almost one-fourth of all registered voters. And they vote in higher proportion than non-Catholics.

They're important to both parties: Obama carried Catholics in '08 (54-45), and Bush did in '04 (52-47) even though John Kerry's Catholic.”

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