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The Irish Monetary Fund and Ireland’s future


Famous photograph of IMF reps walking to Irish Government buildings passing by a homeless man
Famous photograph of IMF reps walking to Irish Government buildings passing by a homeless man

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The recent control of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Ireland is cause for concern.

Ireland is now saddled with an 85 billion ($119 billion) loan -- 2.7 times the total tax take in 2010 -- administered jointly by the EU and the IMF (about 22.5 billion).

Total tax revenue in 2010 estimated by the Irish government was 32 billion.

What are the economic consequences for Ireland in repaying this loan?

Who are the senior bondholders that will be guaranteed repayment with this loan?

And should the ordinary taxpayer have to repay this humongous debt?

Interest on the loan will run at about 3% for 2011.

In 2011 the Irish people via government collection of taxes will pay 2.55 billion in interest alone on this loan. With long-term interest rates predicted to rise, a 25 basis point increase (.25%) in interest rates will add another 212 million to the debt.

At these rates, large chunks of Ireland ’s tax revenue will be absorbed in repaying the interest. The opportunity cost of the loan will necessitate a massive decrease in essential services to ordinary Irish citizens.


Nster.com


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Here I am again, in the # 9 spot. Searlit and sirpeter, I agree with you. Ireland has a lot of seemingly "toxic" debt at the moment. The economy, nevertheless, will reinvigorate and, when it does, ease the burden on all debt holders, including, and especially, the government. If the government, in the interim, as a leading stockholder in the financial system, does not sell all "non-performing" assets at "garage-sale" rates to non-Irish individuals and entities, then Ireland will have a much improved capacity to sustain its next economic plateau. Compliments, sirpeter, on the presentation of Ireland's abiding strengths. Found it genuinely informative.
Irish companies have had continuous export growth for the past 20 months in a row and we estimate that Ireland’s indigenous exports for 2010 were about €13.7 billion. This means that 70 per cent of the exports lost in 2009 were recovered in 2010. By the end of 2011 we expect exports to be above our record pre-recession level. Because of the work we have put in as a nation, Ireland continues to punch well above its weight globally. We are the largest net exporter of pharmaceuticals in the world. We are the world’s second largest exporter of computer and IT services – behind India and ahead of Germany, the UK and the United States. We are the fifth largest exporter of beef in the world. Globally, one in seven formula-fed babies are drinking infant formula that has been produced in Ireland. In financial services, €1.7 trillion of funds are administered here. For a small island, those are impressive achievements. We are fourth in the world for the availability of skilled labour and sixth for labour productivity. Our export performance for 2010 has been remarkable, growing 7 per cent in a difficult global climate. The message to the international community is that they should expect Ireland to be the comeback economy of Europe. Don't worry people,let's give things a chance.
So, casualIMBA, you're saying that bondholders shouldn't share any of the blame or they will penalize Ireland later when they are looking for investment opportunities? The bondholders and banks have to stop trying to have it both ways. If they are to be bailed out when their risks fail, then they have assumed the position of a bankruptcy, whether they call it that or not. From this position they are indebted to the government which bailed them out. That government being the Irish taxpayer. When the economy improves the banks and bondholders will more than make up for any losses. Hold your horses!
I agree w/ LilPaddy... Don’t you think the headline above should have read “Ireland and the future of the International Monetary Fund”? That’s how big the problem is.
Those of us Irish who have a few pennies to "invest" and want an Irish Ireland (if for no other reason than to be buried in our IRISH homeland)... Should put their money where their heart (supposedly) is.... As if we do not "invest" in Ireland... WHO WILL??? I for one love my country more than all the $ I've got, and I'm putting it where my heart is..... Think about it.. If all the Irish in the U.S. put up a few $ as an "investment"... We would buy back our beloved homeland..... Please join me... If not us... WHO???? Ireland should belong to THE IRISH!!! Paddy.
A.P. - Perfectly acceptable blog post, essay, or editorial, but I believe this was captioned under news. While questions are being asked - and you asked a few - is it appropriate for Americans to point out (to the Irish) it is an Irish head on Europe's economic pike? Good job to point out the risk to water resources. Does a new government qualify as a "structural adjustment?" The Irish see their property tax, their non-performing loans financial system, and their ownership of the dubious assets as debt obligations are met. Major calls for economic neo-colonialism are not justiable, just the same. Sure, a stirring image now and then, to emphasize a point, but the Irish people are realists. Jobs and income were realized in Ireland while the investment binge lasted. It will retain its own (albiet interdependent) financial system. The Irish people, despite their woes, see the residual value (silver lining, if you will) in being their own financial stewards. Ireland, as you know, in not an LDC, and, hopefully, its government, among others charged with leadership, will secure a certain autonomy in its investment and disposition of European Economic strength. American Economic strength (and Baruch is not far removed from it) is something Ireland has nurtured over the years, and should stand it in good stead. Europe knows this. True, there are senior bondholders. True, EACH 50 basis points (1/2%) may ( I have not checked your #s) represent 424 million euros - and I have made this very point in other I.C. blog entries - in cost or savings to the Irish taxpayer. But - and here is a question - can the Irish (or Irish American) blame the investors (bondholders,) and not expect to pay opportunity costs in the future?
What's The Irish Monetary Fund? Never heard of it.
God help the poor.
A Nation once again? The Brits marched out of Dublin Castle just a while ago, historically speaking, and now the IMF have marched into the capital! Did anyone notice the "Fall of the First Republic"? Ireland's recent and dubious flirtation with self government was a bust.Ireland needs a High King, a new currency, and independence.
 




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