Intelligencer 10 - 17 Sept 2008
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Overlooking Hillary A Mistake?
BARACK Obama's decision not to pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate may well condemn him to defeat in November.
At least that's the stark evidence from the latest polling, which shows white women moving in droves to the new John McCain/Sarah Palin ticket, no doubt attracted by the historic choice of Alaska Governor Palin.
Obama seems in danger of repeating the Al Gore mistake of 2000 when he refused to involve the Clintons in his race, and lost narrowly in states such as Arkansas he would almost certainly have won if Bill Clinton campaigned for him.
Why Obama did not swallow his pride and pick Clinton, who would no doubt have ensured him victory, is just one mystery of a puzzling election season when surprises such as the Palin pick transform the race.
Back in 1960 John F. Kennedy had the good sense to pick Lyndon Johnson, even though he could not stand the Texas senator. Johnson duly delivered Texas and the White House to Kennedy.
The extraordinary turnaround in polling after the Republican convention last week has caught everyone by surprise.
As the Los Angeles Times noted when weighing the latest polls, "The most surprising results - and surely the most disturbing for the freshman Illinois senator's camp - are the immense gains McCain has made among white women following the Republican National Convention and the well-received prime-time speech by Palin."
The fact is that in an earlier poll before the conventions female voters were 50-42 in Obama's favor. Now one of the latest polls shows women at 53-41 for McCain.
