Sean O'Shea by Sean O'Shea
Soldat can take Kentucky Derby with Stay Thirsty second
Posted on Thursday, May 05, 2011 at 01:34 AM
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The draw has been made, the odds posted and now all that remains is to pick the winner of the 137th Kentucky Derby.
Lets got through the throw outs first.
Uncle Mo is still not definite for the race according to trainer Todd Pletcher-- not good enough in Derby Week to have such hesitation.
Dialed In is favorite after a good draw and he will be running late but too late to catch the leaders.
My guess is they will not go all that fast up front this year despite lots of predictions to the contrary.
Midnight Interlude, the Baffert horse simply does not have the foundation to win the Derby,never having run as a two year old.
Master of Hounds the Irish raider has never run on dirt though he did race on a somewhat similar surface in Dubai but he has run only once this year,
ArchArchArch, great prep races and training well but No 1 gate will kill him
Now the best longshots
Pants on Fire is a ridiculous 30/1 in the morning line despite beating Nehro who is third favorite at 9/1 in the Louisiana Derby. Good win place and show bet.
Mucho Macho Man -- Among the most experienced horses in the field and will come running late. Win Place and show.
Derby Kitten -- drew in as last runner. Have a feeling about this guy. He won the Lexington and while he has never won on dirt I think he might run into a place
Soldat, or soldier in french. Mclaughlin's horse ran poorly in the Florida Derby but was very impressive in the Fountain of Youth.Has an outside spot that will allow him to stalk the leaders and he will definitely get the distance. Great trainer.
Stay Thirsty has only one bad race and has been overshadowed by his stable mate Uncle Mo but he has worked very well at Churchill and I can see him outshining the Uncle.
So my selections are Soldat to win, Stay Thirsty Second,, Mucho Macho Man third and good exotic chances with Derby Kitten and Pants on Fire.