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Periscope by Niall O'Dowd

Sinn Fein’s Gerry Adams as Ireland’s next Prime Minister? -- New poll makes it a possibility after the next election

Posted on Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 08:31 AM
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Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams

Gerry Adams as Ireland’s next prime minister may not be as fanciful as many think.

The real prospect of Sinn Fein leading the next Irish government is now apparent.

The latest opinion poll in the Irish Times shows Sinn Fein leaping to 24 per cent support with fellow opposition members Fianna Fail at 17 per cent and independents at 15 per cent.

Gerry Adams is now the most popular party leader after an eight point jump put him ahead of Enda Kenny
That combined total of opposition votes puts them at 56 per cent, well ahead of the governing coalition of Fine Gael and Labor who amass only 42 per cent of the vote.

It is clear that Sinn Fein are having the Labour party for lunch, the Labourites are down to 10 per cent with the vast majority of their voters shifting to Sinn Fein.

Even Fianna Fail, architects of the economic mess, are making a comeback because they are in opposition

It is inevitable in a massive economic downturn that the government parties take the heat. But the Labour Party is especially being decimated.

It is always thus it seems. Minority parties in governments --see Liberal Party in England, are usually the ones who take the brunt of the criticism.

The poll is yet another milestone for Sinn Fein who have commenced an inexorable march towards power in Ireland North and South.

While the shadow of the North’s war loomed large even in the recent presidential election, as time passes such concerns will disappear.

The next election is not due until about 2015, by which time Sinn Fein will have had several years to consolidate power.

They happen to be very good at that and are finally luring good young candidates in the Irish Republic to match the calibre of their leaders in Northern Ireland.

The European treaty poll this week should pass, according to all the experts and polls but one wonders if there is not a hidden no vote lurking in the undergrowth.

Certainly, given the statistics of this latest poll, if anti-government voters turn out in numbers they could easily defeat it.

There will be many nervous faces until the votes are counted.


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142 comments

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seamus60 | Jun 09, 2012, 09:10 AM EDT
Sirpeter. I have been an active republican and supporter of SF from my teens. I have always debated (argued) on behalf of their aspirations. However since they have entered Gov that has changed, not by my doing but theirs. Why would i speak negatively of the DUP when they are doing a better job of representing their voters and still able to cream off the top. It is they who wish to invoke the status quo. When they stop doing a better job than SF it will be time for their side to slate them. I asked you earlier what achievements SF have to their portfolio in 18 years. Your reply was the right one. They have stopped making war. Thats it. We were led to expect much more than talking shops where all the participants get rich. Where they work in tandom to deprive Catholics of badly needed houses. Hardly the DUP`s fault if SF are happy to go along with it, but worse when they atempt to slip it through by stelph. By your logic i should spend my time praising the DUP instead instead of questioning SF. I have only done it here through need to explain my opinion. As for facts, FACT Gerry Adams has told the world he knew his brother was a peadophile and he done nothing to protect the children of Ireland and the USA. A fact you have difficulty coming to terms with. I treat it for what it is like most other points I have made. There can be no excuses, but if you have any of value, I`m all ears.

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sirpeter | Jun 08, 2012, 06:35 PM EDT
Springfield9.That's great input there.Well Done!!Can you prove Gerry was in the PIRA? Beeeeep!! Sorry time up. Next contestant.

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Springfield9 | Jun 08, 2012, 06:01 PM EDT
It's always this way. Aland filled with great philosophers and poets picks an idiot. Adams is a Provo who went Hollywood ...live with it.

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sirpeter | Jun 08, 2012, 03:56 PM EDT
seamus60. No I didn't!!.Well Sesmus I can see you are not a fan of Sinn Fein anyway.As I said already SF has only 29 seats out of 108.I don't hear you speaking negatively against the DUP or the other parties.It's hard to get to the truth with anybody from NI.They are so polarized in everything they say and tend to place all the woes on the other side.You see I don't just blame FF for the mess the Republic is in.I blame all the parties in the Dail.Having had this discussion you place all the woes of NI squarely on SF.If something doesn't sit right to me,it usually isn't right.The credibility and weight of an argument is either based on excepted facts or a personal opinion.I like excepted facts so that I can check them out.When an opinion on something is totally one-sided and muck slinging.It just means the person is not listening to the other side of the story.

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seamus60 | Jun 08, 2012, 12:28 PM EDT
Ancavker. I could try asking them, but they don`t do answering to republicans questions. There is a gravy train rolling on its merry way that could be the reason. Another could be that they just settled for too few crumbs off the table in respect of what real clout they would have in Gov. They have all but abandoned their own voters in North Belfast because they won`t lay down for orange parades and they dare ask questions any constituant has the right to. That flys in the face of all their pre election promises of transparency. Maybe they are just plain useless. What ever it is, its financially rewarding.

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ancavker | Jun 08, 2012, 11:52 AM EDT
seamus60: Your points are well taken, so why do you feel SF has been so ineffective in delivering to the needy in places like west Belfast?

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seamus60 | Jun 08, 2012, 10:51 AM EDT
Sirpeter. Have you ever ventured into the blanket site ? Some good reading.

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seamus60 | Jun 08, 2012, 10:49 AM EDT
Ancavker. With respect we have a party in the North who promised the moon, including accountability and transparency. 18 Years later we are still waiting for the very basic of those promises. Instead we are loosing ground, and why wouldn`t we with SF now prepared to buy into the likes of Gerry Mandering against the most needy Nationalists. Something we took to the streets against in 69. They call it progress. lol. The 26 is also an economic basket case so how will Adams do any better. The man is a compulsive liar and it rubs off on the party. Its neither here nor there wat has happened in the past as its only used on a dailly basis to disguise SF`s inability to deliver. The one thing they are wizards at is making a bad result look like a good one. But that doesn`t help those most in need on the ground.

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YoungPike | Jun 08, 2012, 10:17 AM EDT
I think it would be a very bad move to make such a rabid Anglophobe Prime Minister. McGuinness has realized the British are nice guys really, so what's Adam's problem?

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ancavker | Jun 08, 2012, 09:58 AM EDT
seamus60: As sirpeter pointed out there is not a whole lot Sinn-Fein can deliver in the north, as it is an always was an economic basket case. The present arrangement is a mere talk shop, that may evolve into and should evolve into a united Ireland at some point. There is no justification,and never was a justification for partition, and it was never supposed to be permanent. We can rightly point out the atrocities committed by all the para militarize including the Provo's. But the unionists in the north bare a big share of the responsibility for why Ireland as a whole has been held back for so long, and the Ireland that could have been did not happen. Ulster could have said yes, or even maybe before saying no. Had they opted in instead of out I truly believe the Ireland envisioned by many could have been a reality

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Bythebay | Jun 08, 2012, 09:57 AM EDT
Adams has been scooped by the Head of the Orange Order speaking to the Seanad in Dublin (for you in the US so confused by the names of Irish Government entities, that means Senate). Peter Robinson was at Iveagh House in Dublin delivering a lecture on Irish unionism (small u) and Edward Carson who considered himself Irish and was of course a Dubliner. Ha, ha, Irish Central didn't even get the message, Sinn Fein has been outdone. Game on.

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seamus60 | Jun 08, 2012, 09:09 AM EDT
sirpeter. You don`t get hit anywhere with a Magnum 44 and be out and about walking the scenic roads of Inishowen with your arm in a sling days later. Unless there was devine intervention. Perhaps the one Ingrim talked about. Stone was a renegade who broke ranks. No doubt assisted by others. Had the main loyalist paramillitaries and their partners in dirty ops decided to take Adams out he`d have been gone in a flash.When dirty ops wanted you gone you were. Look at finnucane or Nelson. The brits knew what Adams was having for breakfast and all the rest. Sure the man was surrounded by touts. What about operation Tauris. The list goes on.

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IrelandNorth | Jun 08, 2012, 08:42 AM EDT
Citizen69! I stand corrected re Craig quote date! Seems Craig was mirroring what he felt was happening in 26 counties. Presume his reference to South/Southern Ireland not just to Munster, but included eastern-, western- and 3 counties of northern Ireland. PS Does quite a while re educational equality in NI include 40 years ago during Gerry's adolescence? No man is his brother's keeper, even if he's a father. And can homosexuals not be peadophiles too? Re Brussels [Austeity] Treaty. Ulster isn't the only province which can say NO! c. 40% of Leinster/Munster and Connacht sid NO to Brussels! Dr Noel Brown may have eradicated TB (Tuberculosis) from Ireland. Too bad Clann na Poblachta didn't eradicate FG/FF (FreeStateOsis). Connolly warned that partition would lead to a "carnival of reaction". Anyone doubt the accuracy of his prediction in hindsight? If Lord Palmerston was correct when he said that "power corrups and absolute power corrups absolutely", would that not mean that Mother Theresa and her Sisters of Charity would be corrupted if they entered Dail Eireann? SFs % popularity is higher on an all Ireland basis!

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sirpeter | Jun 08, 2012, 06:38 AM EDT
seamus60 Quote"Shot all those times with a Magnum 44 and never lost a limb???Quote"No fear either from the main loyalist paramilitary's.They had their wee private agreement to keep top men safe".Unquote~Seamus are you implying Gerry set the whole thing up?.lol I'm getting a vision here of Gerry saying to Martin.For fu*k sake Martin be careful where you shoot me and for fu*k sake watch the one to the neck.;))lol

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sirpeter | Jun 08, 2012, 06:26 AM EDT
seamus60.In a lot of ways you are backing up what I have said many times to loyalists on IC.In NI you have 30.8% of the total workforce in the public service.This is significantly higher than the overall UK figure of 19.5%.Then you have the unemployed ect.In total, the British government subvention totals £5,000m, or 20% of Northern Ireland's economic output.Working-age economic inactivity is 28%,which is the highest of any UK region.Throughout the 1990s, the Northern Irish economy grew faster than did the economy of the rest of the UK,due to the Celtic Tiger rapid growth of the economy of the Republic of Ireland.NI is stuck between British government charity and the economic up's and down's of the Republic.Seamus no wonder nothing is happening.The whole set-up is crap for NI and has been since partition.

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