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Periscope by Niall O'Dowd

Over 120,000 Irish to flee hard times says emigration report

Posted on Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 10:17 PM
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The number of people leaving Ireland by the end of 2011 is expected to reach 120,000 according to a new survey issued by the Economic Social Research Council (ESRI) the prime think tank on economic matters.

The shock figures are released by the ESRI in a report out today .

In other words it is back to the future for Ireland.

The emigrant floods of the 1920s, 1950s, 1980s and now 2010 are perfectly spaced 30 year exoduses from Ireland, always associated with an economic downturn.

The exception was the 1920s because of the aftermath of the civil war.

So all those economic panjandrums who had predicted the end of the emigrant boats during the good times are revealed to be far off the mark.

About as wrong as the gurus who predicted the never -ending rise of house prices in the Emerald Isle .

Not coincidentally, the ESRI also note that the economic situation is expected to improve in the next few years.

Emigration can do that, as the competition for jobs and resources lessen.

Yet it is all a terrible indictment of the long-term government of a little island that by now should have figured out a way to ride out recessions, like countries such as Canada and Australia did on this occasion.

It is not like the Irish have been unsuccessful in solving many problems.

The peace process in the North is an extraordinary example of how clever they can be when faced with a seemingly insurmountable problem.

But with the North they attacked it with a proper sense of the difficulty and a humility about what they felt they could achieve.

The bloated Celtic Tiger was another animal altogether.

The Irish expression 'put a beggar on horseback and he will ride it to hell' is apt here. Too many made money too fast, gained power so fast, became intoxicated with the delusion of their own grandeur.

They were so busy back clapping and bowing for encores that they missed the ghost quietly slipping into the banquet.

It oddly reminds me of the scene in Godfather 11 when Michael Corleone is in Cuba on New Year's eve celebrating with the Batista regime.

The party is long and boisterous but mixed with the firecrackers are the opening salvos of the guns of Castro's revolutionaries.

All changed. Changed utterly.

Now too in Ireland.

It will be a long road back.



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54 comments

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maireadniriain | Aug 13, 2010, 09:16 AM EDT
The Celtic Tiger was ridden to hell by corrupt, greedy politicians and many brainless schemes. Calling for deportation of foreigners and stopping benefits is like trying to put the genie back in the bottle. It has been too easy for them to enter, and Citizens of the other 26 EU Countries have that right. I am Irish and also a US Citizen with both passports. Unemployment here in some States is 10 to 14%. Taxpayers in the USA, like those in Ireland, can not afford to keep on supporting those who enter illegally then line up for hand-outs. The Irish emigrate with the intention of working hard and paying their way. I know Irish people working here without a Visa who dare not go home for fear they will not get back in. They also dare not get sick or have an accident. When I applied for my "green card" 18 years ago, I had to sign an oath that I would not claim any benefits or be a burden on the USA. I thought that was fair enough, and I have worked here in Florida and paid taxes ever since. If you intend to settle here bear in mind: When you become a US Citizen or "Permanent Resident" your worldwide income is taxable by the IRS, even pensions and income earned in one's homeland.

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MCIRISH | Jul 26, 2010, 12:17 PM EDT
VERY INTERESTING, IS IT A GOOD TIME TO RETURN TO THE OLD SOD????

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peterson | Jul 23, 2010, 02:23 PM EDT
Sounds like the same situation the U.S. is having.

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DennisQ | Jul 22, 2010, 03:17 AM EDT
The decision to leave home and come to America is not made at the macroeconomic level, even though it reflects the situation at a macro level. It's made one at a time, and the micro level. So-called "remedies" have to address individual situations at that level, not at the larger macro level. The "reforms" that anti-immigration people seek won't succeed because they function only at the macro level. Despite what they say they want, they don't want to live in a totalitarian society in which people have to present papers to justify their presence. There is no solution at the micro level. Individuals come here one at a time, and they find jobs from individual employers one at a time. There is no way to stop that; and sensible regulation needs to address the kinds of "reforms" that are possible. Macro reform is not possible without changing the nature of society as we understand it.

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IrishAndProud | Jul 19, 2010, 07:02 PM EDT
WoundedKnee, as I've advocated before, the foreigners you mentioned need to be immediately and unconditionally DEPORTED back to their own countries -- and I'm sorry if it offends but that includes their children, even if they were born in Ireland. Let's face it, many of these folk could never be truly Irish anyway, even if they were the slightest bit interested in it (which many are not). They contribute nothing to Irish culture or identity (quite the reverse) and really have no business ever setting foot on that island, let alone living there off a public dole that cannot even afford it, anymore. Deport 'em all. Cut off every last euro of their public benefits, and send 'em on a one-way plane ride back home (giving sufficient advance notice, of course, so they can pack, first). When the choice is a free one-way plane ride back home or starvation, that gets some rear-ends in gear, real fast. And my gosh, is it ever needed.

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Liamkeyes | Jul 17, 2010, 04:47 PM EDT
Where are the 120,000 going to go, pray tell me. The Construction Industry is the USA and Canada are going to a recession of their own as I believe the UK and Australia. That has a huge ripple effect on their economies.

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WoundedKnee | Jul 17, 2010, 11:15 AM EDT
One of the great tragedies of what has been done to Ireland by Fianna Fail is that during the Celtic Tiger years huge numbers of foreign migrants were recruited to go live in Ireland. Now the Tiger has gone, but those migrants are still there. Look at the lines for welfare, child benefit etc. if you are ever in an Irish Post Office on benefits day (I think its Thursdays). Row after row of Africans, Russians, Pakistanis, Poles, Arabs etc. lining up for handouts. It's absolute craziness for a small country like Ireland to have to support huge numbers of dependent foreigners. And that's without even mentioning the vast costs on the Irish educational system in teaching the children of these foreigners, many of whom don't speak English (and don't even mention what it's doing to the situation of the Irish language in the schools...)

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DennisQ | Jul 17, 2010, 09:19 AM EDT
Niall, I think you're way too harsh on people who thought the Celtic Tiger years represented a permanent change in Ireland's fortunes. The Celtic Tiger was driven by information technology - esp. by companies like Dell, Intel and Microsoft. Those companies survive by adapting to the extreme volatility of the market for their products. Host countries' comparative advantage in producing the current line of products can evaporate overnight as a different line of products emerges. The Irish are certainly not the only people to guess wrong about information technology. People blame Clinton for overestimating the dot coms, but that's faulting him for being no more prescient than any of his contemporaries.

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hyattsville | Jul 16, 2010, 11:28 AM EDT
Well look on the positive side Niall. There’s bound to be some skilled writers amongst them looking for a start at IC. I can think of at least four IC contributors that ought to be replaced toute de suite’ish if not sooner!

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DennisQ | Jul 16, 2010, 03:56 AM EDT
All changed. Changed utterly. This is a reference to Yeats' poem "Easter 1916" which is said to update his earlier poem "September 1913" about the Lockout in Dublin. Scholars believe that Yeats saw in MacDonagh and McBride and Connolly and Pearse the spirit of the Fenian John O'Leary who had died nine years earlier. If this is true, Yeats was a lot more forward-thinking than many of his contemporaries. I'd always thought that Yeats was something of a New Age guy with seances and spirits and all that. In fact I'd thought Yeats wrote "1916" some time after 1916 after the political dust had settled. Seeing him in this different light I recognize Yeats as a visionary in a broader sense than he is usually credited with being. Certainly his contemporaries did not universally share in Yeats' conclusion, " . . . a terrible beauty is born.

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GeorgeDillon | Jul 15, 2010, 08:55 PM EDT
Swinford: Looks like you're crying uncle. Next time think a little (and learn a little) before you post your offensive nonsense. What a disgusting slur--"the Irish are inbred, and need the importation of huge numbers of foreigners to improve their genes..." That's vile racist claptrap, Swinford, the likes we used to hear from the Klan. You should be ashamed of yourself but perhaps you're too "inbred" to know right from wrong.

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GeorgeDillon | Jul 15, 2010, 08:42 PM EDT
George, you weary me. You are not open to reasoned, reasonable and factual commentary. I have even tried a little humor on you. Instead you come back with more beside-the-point nonsense and insult. Enough already! You are not up to rational, intelligent debate. I don't drive a Cadillac, George, I believe they are the favored automobile of pimps and you know what you can do with yours .... there's plenty of room there.

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GeorgeDillon | Jul 15, 2010, 07:44 PM EDT
This is tripe and nonsense from Swinford. Any analysis of names in Ireland will show the presence of large numbers of Norman names, English names, and even a few Danish names. Ireland has also welcomed German Pallotines, Lithuanian Jews, Italians, Vietnamese, Chinese, Chileans and lots more. Swifrod is so off the wall that he thinks there were no immigrants or foreigners in Ireland before Mass Immigration began a dozen years ago. His dim vision of Ireland is based on cloudy memories of growing up in some one-horse village in Connaught. Wake up, Swinford, your experience of Ireland was a depressing one, but it wasn't our fault! It's no reason to hate Ireland or Irish people. Maybe a psychologist could explore your problem of low self-esteem with you.

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GeorgeDillon | Jul 15, 2010, 05:50 PM EDT
WoundedKnee, I don't suffer fools gladly but I will engage you briefly: 1. The Vikings mostly attacked coastal areas and were ultimately defeated at the Battle of Clontarf in 1014 - almost a 1,000 years ago. While there was some inter-marriage for a while, their effect on native bloodlines was minor. 2. The Normans arrived in the late 12th century and many stayed, becoming, as we learned in history, "More Irish than the Irish themselves." (Not really true because the NormanIrish always considered themselves a cut above the native Irish) Still, their overall impact was not great because their numbers were never great - Ireland did not become Normanized to the extent that England did. 3. The English (starting with the Norman-English) did come in great numbers but were, for the most part, loath to mix their purified anti-Catholic blood with what they firmly believed was an inferior race. Now please go away, this lesson is over.

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GeorgeDillon | Jul 15, 2010, 05:18 PM EDT
TomSwinford: Let's hope you haven't added any of your inbred genes to the Irish stock!

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