Martin McGuinness presidential move a major coup for Sinn Fein ---Either way they will win
By: Niall O'Dowd | Published Tuesday, November 1, 2011, 7:15 PM | Updated Tuesday, November 1, 2011, 7:15 PM
The entry of Martin McGuinness into the presidential race throws the cat among the pigeons very forcefully in Ireland.
I happened to be on a current affairs program, the George Hook Show here in Dublin when the news hit
. The reaction of the pundits was immediate.
A presidential race that was becoming a circus of minor contenders suddenly had been galvanized by the entrance of the Sinn Fein Deputy First Minister.
The immediate reaction was that McGuinness could not win the race but could get as high as 25 per cent of the vote and possibly finish second.
Paddy Power bookmakers seemed to concur with that. They listed him as a 6/1 shot, well behind the two front-runners Michael D. Higgins of the Labor Party and Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael.
But this presidential race has been such a surprise cocktail form the beginning.
McGuinness was not the only contender announcing yesterday.
Last night on the Late Late Show, Ireland’s top rated program, David Norris announced he was getting back in the race after a gay scandal forced him out .
Like moths to the flame contenders cannot resist the lure of Ireland’s top constitutional job.
I’m not that sure that McGuinness can’t win. There is a strange mood abroad in Ireland with the economic collapse there and I know several Irish people who told me McGuinness is the one Sinn Fein candidate they would cast a protest vote for.
He has an excellent image in the south in recent years, his ability to work with Ian Paisley and Peter Robinson and construct a solid government in Northern Ireland has won him deserved praise everywhere.
There are many who will wish he can get back to that that the peace process is not fully bedded down and who see his steady hand is still needed in the North.
But the lure of running for president in the south was too big to turn down.
It positions Sinn Fein as the largest opposition party in the south and leaves Fianna Fail, who have refused to run a candidate for Ireland’s highest office, looking very diminished indeed.
Sinn Fein as usual are playing a long term game If McGuinness wins it is an incredible achievement.
If he loses, but finishes second it moves Sinn Fein to the position of being Ireland’s leading opposition party.
Either way they win, it is a plus sum game and a net gain for them.
Clever, very clever.
21 Comments
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Switch to the desktop site to post a comment.eiriamach | Sep 21, 2011, 09:35 PM EDT
Bhain an comhrá seo gáire asam! Go raibh maith agaibh!
sirpeter | Sep 21, 2011, 02:13 PM EDT
kinvara7.Well done.Georgy Boy knows about as much Irish as Towngate who also tried to string a few sentences together to try and catch me out.But it didn't make any real sense until it dawned on me he used Google translator.I then gave him a nice little reply in Irish and he also ran away.haha
seanomelbourne | Sep 20, 2011, 09:44 PM EDT
I think you are correct kinvara7 I commend you on your gaelic.You have given me the impetus to relearn Irish. I have lost the ability to speak Irish but can still read some.Maith an bhfear leath a chara.
kinvara7 | Sep 20, 2011, 10:51 AM EDT
Come on George, I have helped you out learning the language previously. I won't translate what I've written, at least not for the moment, because that would take the fun out of it. I only use one name on this website, unlike you (suspicion haunts the guilty mind). Previously, Trealach spoke to you in Irish but did you reply? For someone who professes to love the Irish language (which is very nice of you) you use it very rarely. Indeed you use it a lot less than me. When you do use it, it is in a condescending way to other posters, how does that help the language? Therefore it is very hypocritical of you to talk about ‘demeaning’ the language. If your interest is genuine, rather than using it merely to insult people now and then, then you would be well advised to drop the silly remarks. It does you no favours. Instead you should try to encourage your fellow Irish-Americans to use it. An appreciation and an understanding of Irish is something which should and could unite Irish people and Irish-Americans. Nach bhfeiceann tú féin go bhfuil an ceart agam?
kinvara7 | Sep 20, 2011, 10:14 AM EDT
Ceard é seo? Usáid mé ach aon ainm amháin. George, tá suim agat faoi an teanga agus tá sin go hiontach, ach ná bí ag magadh fút féin; tá amaidí ort. Más buan mo chuimhne, roimhe seo, dúirt tú go raibh Gaeilge agat, ach ca bhfuil sé? Bhí Trealach ag caint leat ach bhí tú féin an-chiúin. Chaill tú do chaint? (Níl dóigh dheas chainte agat, Gaeilge no Bearla). Ag cuimhneamh air sin, abair as Gaeilge é… Tá mé ag cur mo anama amach ag gáire! Uaidh seo amach, is bréagach thú.
seanomelbourne | Sep 19, 2011, 07:37 PM EDT
With so many candidates in the field a Martin victory is a good possibilty.He is the best of a bad lot.
GeorgeDillon | Sep 19, 2011, 03:55 PM EDT
"Fiána Fáil"--kinvara/trealach, your claim to know Irish is getting more ludicrous by the minute. Now it turns out you can't even spell the name of what was for many decades the largest political party in Ireland!
GeorgeDillon | Sep 19, 2011, 03:52 PM EDT
Not surprised to see our resident apologist for the settlement of Ireland by foreigners Kinvara aka trealach writing in support of a Fianna Fail candidate to be president. Haven't your Fianna Fail slum landlord buddies done enough to ruin Ireland, kinvara? Why don't those particular Fianna Fail roaches crawl away back into the dark where they and their boosters such as kinvara aka trealach belong? And kinvara, or whoever else you claim to be, give up the pretense that you understand Irish. I know the "cupla focal" is the Fianna Fail tradition, but three or four pidgin words only demean the language and disrespect those of us who love and speak it.
brianmack | Sep 18, 2011, 07:35 PM EDT
Good analysis Niall. By the way, thank you again for this incredible media journal that connects me to my favorite place on earth.
mamaginnty | Sep 18, 2011, 07:29 PM EDT
I wish Martin Mc Guinness good luck. Cheers...to Martin.
tomasjryan | Sep 18, 2011, 01:46 PM EDT
The bias in Niall O'Dowd's reporting is striking and downright irresponsible. Here, O'Dowd manages to write an entire article on Martin Guinness' Irish Presidential campaign without once mentioning that he was in fact an I.R.A. leader, and a terrorist. Yet when O'Dowd writes about David Norris, he quickly reminds readers that Norris' ex-partner was convicted of statutory rape in Israel. More so, O'Dowd chooses to remove the 'statutory' clause and vaguely names the crime as rape, and then mischievously couples it with the usual homophobic insinuations. This is not news reporting, not even by tabloid standards.
Trealach | Sep 18, 2011, 01:31 PM EDT
@Kinvara - O'Dowd is behaving like a spoilt child, and constantly spitting out his dummy. I advised him to stay out of Irish Politics, (1) because he is a foreigner, despite his claims to the contrary (2) because he knows absolutely nothing about either the Presidency, its Constitutional function and obligations, nor does he know anything about Irish Politics. Unfortunately he removed my post - just like a spoilt child would, when caught out on a lie when asked to name his 'backers' and those who 'invited' him to stand for election. We now know that it certainly wasn't Sinn Fein or Fiána Fáil. As for you're rightly expected balance in journalism - don't hold your breath on this site. This is an anti-Irish and anti-Catholic site.
seanomelbourne | Sep 17, 2011, 07:53 PM EDT
oops would love to hear from Dudley-Edwards,Eoghain Harris,Myers,Cusack and the rest of the plastic Irish commentators their view on Matrin entering the race.
seanomelbourne | Sep 17, 2011, 07:51 PM EDT
Would love to her from Myers,Dudley-edwards Edwards,Eoghain Harris and the rest of the
pilib04 | Sep 17, 2011, 05:01 PM EDT
Don't be confused by Martin McGuinness. He does not start something he doesn't plan on finishing. Martin is in this race to win. He will be Uachtaran na hEireann.
greensod | Sep 17, 2011, 12:53 PM EDT
Your closing words, Clever,very clever. Thats exactly what Ireland needs,Sinn Fein has loads of people that fit that mold. Clever,smart,intellegent,well educated proven track records,Great step in the right direction,lets get more of these Sinn Fein people moved into decision making positions,before it is too late for Ireland.Good luck Martin.
kinvara7 | Sep 17, 2011, 12:29 PM EDT
@Moth O'Dowd: Do you remember when you pulled out of the race and you spoke about how impossible it was for Indepedent candidates to go up against Party candidates? Isn't it strange and disappointing how your website has ignored Mary Davis and Sean Gallagher. I believe Sean Gallagher is currently on 21% in the polls, just a few behind Mitchell, yet he is hardly mentioned. When Mr. Gallagher entered the race as an Independent, he did so with a great degree of seriousness and intent; unlike others. Sean Gallagher is an entrepreneur, who has created many jobs for his fellow countrymen (for example, his company Smarthomes employs 70 people and it is due to expand further). Sadly those achievements are apparently less laudable than those of other candidates, and thus are not worth of mention...I believe your words a few months ago were: 'Quite simply I believe the race is not winnable for an independent, any independent, no matter what the current polls say because the dice is stacked.' Well Niall, one would have hoped that the experience would have provided you with some wisdom in this regard, and that you would have sought to give every candidate appropriate coverage.
Rebelforce | Sep 17, 2011, 11:32 AM EDT
I'll bet there are a lot of West-brits in Ireland today who desperately wish they could bring back the days when Sinn Fein candidates were censored. I'm sure Martin McGuiness will very eloquently and effectively tell fed-up Irish voters that a vote for Sinn Fein is a vote AGAINST the same old same old in Irish politics.
eiriamach | Sep 17, 2011, 11:19 AM EDT
Would a win by McGuinness help the cause of re-unification?
antoman | Sep 17, 2011, 09:19 AM EDT
The butler in the Aras does'nt know yet if he will be dressing a man or woman in the morning.
sirpeter | Sep 17, 2011, 07:37 AM EDT
If Sinn Fein could manage to get their voters out and vote on this one.They could do very well.Coming in second would still be an unbelievable achievement.