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Periscope by Niall O'Dowd

Labor/Sinn Fein alliance --could Ireland elect an all left-wing government?

Posted on Saturday, December 04, 2010 at 10:13 PM

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Could Ireland end up with a Labor/Sinn Fein/Left independents government after the upcoming election?

That may not be as farfetched as once was the case.

The combined left vote in last Friday's Irish Sun opinion poll was 40 per cent, 24 per cent for Labor, 16 per cent for Sinn Fein.

There was also a massive 11 per cent vote for independents, most of whom will be left- leaning.

If you do the math it gets awfully close.

The conventional wisdom is a Fine Gael/ Labor government which, on the numbers, Fine Gael at 31 per cent, Labor at 24 per cent would deliver a huge Dail majority.

However, Labor and Fine Gael are an uncomfortable fit in the latest realities of Irish politics.

The IMF/European Union bailout has divided the country strongly left and right and a deal between two partners from opposite ends of the spectrum may prove a lot more difficult than anticipated.

If Labor finish relatively close to Fine Gael in seat numbers they may well want a rotating Prime Minister situation which would be very difficult for Fine Gael to swallow.

Labor will know too, that the history of Irish politics in recent times is that the minority partner in a coalition gets crushed-- see the Progressive Democrats which no longer exists as a party and the Green Party which may not exist after the next election either.

All that will prove fodder for Labor leader Eamon Gilmore. (pictured)

For Fine Gael the only other alternative is to go in with Fianna Fail who are at 13 per cent in the poll. That, however, would rub their supporters completely the wrong way, as well as the country in general.

The popular mood is for Fianna Fail to spend a long time in opposition in return for the way they have fouled up the economy.

But Labor/SinnFein would also have its major problems. There is no love lost between many in the Labor party including Gilmore who came from the Offical Sinn Fein party that broke apart from the Provisional Sinn Fein.

The Officials versus Provos battle has continued unabated for many years now and it would likely resume after this election as both fight for the left wing vote.

All in all a confused situation, but while Labor/Fine Gael will likely paper over the cracks and form the government, the idea of a left wing go it alone government cannot be ruled out.

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GeorgeDillon | Dec 18, 2010, 02:54 PM EST

PlasticHead--trying to crawl under a stone, are you? The "Who, me? I'm not a racist" line has been peddled by racists like you for generations. On second thoughts, do crawl under a stone, and stop posting your racist filth here.

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plasticpaddy | Dec 17, 2010, 09:11 PM EST

Oh George you silly boy! I'm a racist because of something the IRA did? I never made apologies for those actions. Did I? You spout such hateful stuff and call me a bigot. Show me one bigoted thing I've said. Such a silly boy

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Searlit | Dec 10, 2010, 03:47 PM EST

@johnymac60, what would you like to know, friend? I made those comments concise and to the point because people would probably fall asleep a third of the way through, if I tried to explain. People's eyes start to glaze over whenever the topic is politics or financial matters. It's the Holidays, after all, so have a Happy Christmas!

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johnymac60 | Dec 09, 2010, 01:02 PM EST

Honestly. The amount of nonsense written here is voluminous. Folks there is enough room to explain your assertions. A 'sound-bite' style comment only leaves your comments unsupported. Clearly, Mr. Moore has done his homework and has taken you shouters down a peg. @searlit, friend, you're talking utter nonsense. Go study some additional sources, and come back and explain yourself better.

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Searlit | Dec 09, 2010, 12:02 PM EST

I say it's the financial corporations are to blame. Their slash and run off with the currency economic tactis or should I say "strategery" sic.

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ancavker | Dec 09, 2010, 10:57 AM EST

dublinjas: The north does not have an economy to implode. It is just a huge welfare basket case. So now you want the English back, because you made a mess of the country? Of course it's the govt 's fault. That is the Irish way, blame the gov't. Look in the mirror Irish people; this is your own making. Collins and the rest died for nothing. The Irish should be ashamed of themselves.

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maireadinmelb | Dec 08, 2010, 05:09 AM EST

The Euro was not the problem in Ireland, the problem was the governments decision to support the banks while those running the banks and financial institutions ran them into the ground amassing a personal fortune, very like what happened in Wall St that started the economic down turn you lot are all feeling!! Good government spending on public infrastructure kept Australia going well, maybe other governments should have looked at similar solutions rather than funding private companies that were not run in an economically viable manner!

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Searlit | Dec 07, 2010, 11:50 PM EST

@seamusmoore: If you think you can believe everything that google says then you don't remember that they routed searches about BP, during the Gulf oil crisis to sites that were managing PR with a positive face for BP, not the real story. However, if it makes you feel better to think that special interests have your interests, at heart, you are, of course, free to think that way. Don't tell me who I should believe, though. I like to get my information from several sources. I'm not a Fox channel viewer. It's all a little much, don't you think?

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seamusmoore | Dec 07, 2010, 05:30 AM EST

@Searlit Are you a windup artist or are you really that ignorant? So the Fed is a "private enterprise owned mostly by Europeans", you might want to do a tad of research next time before you post your ignorance on here (google Federal Reserve and educate yourself). Your comment reflects the knowledge of the south end of a northbound horse. Oh, and how does Ron Paul intend to "dismantle it", with his one vote out of 435 in the House?

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Searlit | Dec 07, 2010, 12:30 AM EST

The Federal Reserve is a private enterprise, owned mostly by Europeans, i.e., Germany and England. Don't worry ,though, Ron Paul is about to dismantle it.

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seamusmoore | Dec 06, 2010, 11:06 PM EST

@seanomelbourne So you believe Marxist/Socialist economic policy is the way to go? Cuba, Africa, North Korea, I don't see jobless Irish emigrating there. I know that during the Reagan years, we had a whole of Irish economic refugees invade my neighborhood in NYC. David McWilliams predicted the current economic pain of Ireland back in 2006 in his book "The Pope's Children". I believe he said "this will end badly" and it has. The root of the bubble (2003-7) was the adoption of the euro, thereby surrendering the Central Bank's role as the controller of credit in the economy to Brussels. Foreign (i.e. European)banks lent to Ireland because there was no currency risk and they could earn higher interest than in Germany, France, Italy. The Central Bank was powerless to stop the bubble because they no longer controlled interest rates in Ireland. In the US, conservatives believe in individual economic freedom, not surrendering the role of the Federal Reserve (our central bank) to some centralized authority like the EU/ECB. Euro-trash wannabe lefties here in the US see the creation of a North American currency (the "Amero") with the Mexico, Canada and the US participating. I think we'll pass on that given the results the Euro produced for Ireland. For the record, I have been to Ireland about 15 times since 2000 so my views are not from my couch. BTW, when did you become an economic refugee down in OZ?

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seanomelbourne | Dec 06, 2010, 07:09 PM EST

Seamusmoore such an expert from his U.S. couch. live in Ireland for a few years and you might learn how the right stuffed the economy prostituting themselves to international banks and corporations. Anyone would be better than your middle of the road fascist conservatives.

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barneyjo | Dec 06, 2010, 05:29 PM EST

I think we got an interesting insight into the likely shape of Sinn Fein Policy towards the ECB/IMF from comments made by Mary Lou McDonald which seemed to be limited to telling both of these organisations to F**K OFF!!

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GeorgeDillon | Dec 06, 2010, 12:50 PM EST

REMITROMJR: You're wrong. Latin America is most certainly NOT "trending towards center right". Can posters please check facts before posting inaccuracies?

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REMITROMJR | Dec 06, 2010, 11:57 AM EST

Countries in both Europe and South America are trending toward center/right governance; this because of the realization that creating jobs and working with business, not padding the social safety net is the only way out of this world-wide fiscal calamity. The Irish voter is as intelligent as their fellow voters across the world and will quickly come to the realization that a center/left government, while tempting initially, isn't the long-term solution required.

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