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Periscope by Niall O'Dowd

Emmett O’Connell: A prophet before his time

Posted on Thursday, December 09, 2010 at 06:02 AM

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Back in 1972 Emmett O’Connell, a Bronx–born businessman resident in Ireland, wrote a pamphlet entitled “Ireland and the EEC -- The Consequences of Monetary Union.”

It is an extraordinary document that has the power of prophecy as we look at the economic crash landing in Ireland today.

The European Union was the EEC then and Ireland was considering joining the European mainstream. The first few paragraphs of O’Connell’s pamphlet read:

“For the second time in modern history Ireland is debating whether or not to join an economic union. In 1800 full equality within the United Kingdom was offered in return for the sacrifice of Grattan’s parliament (which was the Irish Parliament at the time.) It was expected that free access to British and Imperial markets would bring such prosperity to Ireland that any nostalgia for Ireland would disappear.

“That economic union brought tragedy to Ireland, not prosperity, and the longing for self-determination did not fade away. In a few months the people of the 26 county republic will be faced with a similar offer, full equality within the EEC in return for the sacrifice of economic and possibly, political sovereignty.

“This time the parliament and outward trappings of a state remains -- the better to fool us with.”

Those were surely prophetic words given recent events, and O’Connell, still hale and hearty and as committed as ever, was in my New York office last week to expound further on them.

“I always knew the day would come,” he says now. “We bought a pig in a poke, that was always going to turn around and bite us.”

Here is more of what he wrote: “If the countries of the Common Market succeed in reaching agreement on final parity… of their currencies (i.e., what later became the euro) no Common Market country will be able to help itself through currency manipulation (i.e., devaluing ) in the event of disruption.”

Incredibly this is exactly what has happened. Ireland desperately needs to devalue its currency, raise it s interest rates and start making the country competitive again, but it cannot because it is locked into the euro.
Again from O’Connell’s writings: “If the planned monetary union succeeds, member countries will automatically surrender authority over their monetary and fiscal polices.”

The arrival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and EU officials to Dublin last month brought that prophecy home to roost in no uncertain fashion.

He also wrote: ‘The Central Bank of Ireland will not be permitted to increase the amount of credit available to Irish citizens to permit them to increase trade.”

This is exactly what has happened, as all fiscal policy and dole outs now come from Europe, apart from the Irish pension funds, which have been depleted by the IMF/EU bailout.

O’Connell completed his analysis by writing: “Why not work for a world where government and economics are under genuine human control because the size of such units are small, sensible and human scale.”
Is there anyone alive in Ireland who would disagree with that commentary now?

Back then O’Connell was looked on as a crank, as someone who was trying to turn back the tide. These days his boat has come in.

What would he do now? “Leave the euro. Several countries such as Britain and Sweden are not part of it but are still part of the European Union.”

Who will bet he’s wrong this time?

Not me.

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chazsere | Dec 14, 2010, 02:12 PM EST

Northern California on the Pacific Coast and southern Oregon have been trying to be the territory of the 51st State of Jefferson, to no avail, so you might have to wait in line a bit longer.

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seamusmoore | Dec 11, 2010, 12:53 PM EST

wounded knee you are jokin, right? The last the GOP would want to do is admit a country where 6 out of 10 people are to the left of Ted Kennedy. To say nothing of the fact that it is now a heavily indebted country (Debt to GDP approaching 100%), hemorraghing money like a stuck pig. Hell, what Democrats would support it, given the fiscal deficit and ballooning debt of the US? This fantasy is "just an Irish lullabye", to quote the Bing Crosby song. I don't think the Brits would take Ireland back (God forbid) at this point either. As my Mayo mother used to say: "You made your bed, now lie in it."

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WoundedKnee | Dec 11, 2010, 09:27 AM EST

From time to time I hear talk of Ireland becoming the 51st state. I'd support it, though it is currently pure fantasy. But what steps would be necessary to bring it about? You'd need a pro US-State political party in Ireland like they have in Puerto Rico. You'd also have to look around for another candidate for statehood, since the US would not admit one (heavily Democrat) putative state--Ireland. I can't think of one. Guam has a strong Republican party but I don't think the US wants Guam as a state. US Virgin Islands maybe? Then of course Ireland would probably have to go thru a period as a territory before it became a state. People think only of the advantages to Ireland, what would be in it for the other 50 states?

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WoundedKnee | Dec 10, 2010, 09:09 PM EST

George, I appreciate your unusually civil tone. Thank you. You were mostly quoting another source in your response and I am mostly in agreement with your quotation, whatever its source - except for that nonsense about Irish femininity vs. English masculinity. The Irish characteristics and attributes that you quote are objectively true and, as a reasonably informed fellow, you know this. They have been written about and joked about for generations. Stereotypes don't simply materialize from thin air, they are founded in objective truth. If you call this racist, George, then I am in good company, aren't I, old boy? The fact remains that successive Irish governments over 50 years accomplished little or nothing to alleviate the shameful poverty of its citizens - but a great many of these pols did very well for themselves, entering gov't with modest means and leaving with considerable wealth - you know this too. When prosperity came to Ireland, fleeting though it was, it didn't come because of Irish genius or hard work. It came from abroad, lured by massive gov't grants, corporate tax exemption for years and then ludicrously low corporate taxes - you know this too. Of course, our ship truly came in through our membership in the EU - or so we thought.

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Watchman | Dec 10, 2010, 05:08 PM EST

As recently as the spring of 2007 it would have been considered heresy in Ireland to attack the European Union and to lay the charge (as is now commonplace) that it has replaced England as "the never failing source of all our political evils". Then, it was judged by just about everybody that Europe had been Ireland's salvation and the key reason why the country had risen out of poverty into wealth. How times change. Now Europe is everybody's whipping boy. I say, let us rise against European tyranny, occupy the GPO and Boland's Mill, and then, once our leaders have been shot, aspire to become the 51st state of the USA. Who's with me?

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GeorgeDillon | Dec 10, 2010, 02:43 PM EST

TomSwinford: That's garbage. It's just a reheating of 19th century English racism about what they called "the Celt". As the first web site I opened on this topic puits it "it was broadly argued that the Celt was poetic, light-hearted and imaginative, highly emotional, playful, passionate, and sentimental. But these were characteristics the Victorians also associated with children. Thus the Irish were "immature" and in need of guidance by others, more highly developed than themselves. Irish "emotion" was contrasted, unfavorably, with English "reason", Irish "femininity" with English "masculine" virtues, Irish "poetic" attributes with English "pragmatism"." Shame on you for posting such nonsense in the 21st century.

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hancock | Dec 10, 2010, 02:01 PM EST

I think you guys wish you were English, if you in fact aren't.

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hancock | Dec 10, 2010, 10:43 AM EST

Kudos to Emmett O'Connell, he had that special ability, perhaps wisdom, to see the frightening implications of monetary union. In hindsight, following Britain's lead may have been the wiser course but it was never seriously considered by Fianna Fail - largely because of an eternal enmity and bitterness toward England, the old enemy, despite the fact that Britain was then and remains, by far, our most important trading partner (think the U.S. and Canada). Kevin Meyers, a columnist with the Irish Independent, suggests that this pathological inability to make decisions that are in our best interest is due to "compulsive infantilism." In large and small ways we behave like children, except for our women, whom we force to grow up because, after all, someone has to be responsible. Make no mistake, we have many talents and endearing qualities but we cannot manage our economy or our fiscal house - and we cannot govern ourselves. Thus, here we are.

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Dublinjas | Dec 10, 2010, 05:59 AM EST

When it comes to knowledge and ability on foreign policy who could be more expert than the British, a country whose Empire encompassed four fiths of the Globe, Certainly not a bunch of Bog hopping Republicans in the Irish Government, So why didn't the Irish Govt simply follow the lead of the British ?, If you were to talk to the likes of Garrett Fitzgerald he will tell you that is exactly what he was doing and would have carried on doing, But then we got the "Republican Party" in the form of Fianna Fail and they weren't going down that route, Ireland would burn her own trail and we now see where that got us. We now need to default on these senior bondholders and leave the Euro. Lets have the pain now and get over with instead of having this drip drip of harsh budgets and pain for decades to come with no certain outcome except still being bound in these financial chains even then. Also lets take control of our own governance Get rid of this Gangster party Fianna Fail and their coalescence partners, Get out and vote and make sure your TD knows you will be watching him/her read newspapers and be cognizant of what is going on around you and let your TD know when you are not happy with what he/she is doing etc. Business as usual will be the death of Ireland.

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DanOLoingsigh | Dec 09, 2010, 07:02 PM EST

EFTA certainly helped UK – Scandinavian trade eg Saab & Volvo used a high proportion of UK sourced parts, which qualified for preferential terms of trade. EFTA was trade based, without political ramifications, but highly successful for its time. Don’t forget AITA – Anglo Irish Trade Agreement which ended the ‘Annuities’ dispute and confirmed the return of the Treaty ports

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seamusmoore | Dec 09, 2010, 04:40 PM EST

Ireland could have joined the EFTA (European Free Trade Association), also known "Outer 7", in 1960. Norway and Switzerland (the only founding members still left)are among the top 5 wealthiest countries in the world. Ireland probably didn't join because the UK was a founding member.

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seamusmoore | Dec 09, 2010, 04:20 PM EST

Niall, fiscal policy (govt spending and taxation) does NOT affect credit policy (interest rates and bank reseve requirements). Brussels thru the ECB controls interest rates but the Dail thru the budget controls fiscal policy.

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Towngate | Dec 09, 2010, 02:26 PM EST

George: Thanks for that.I am in your debt. No: my point is much narrower and was merely a comment on the " I hate to say I told you so" school as employed by Niall in the article. As for the monkeys: chained long enough to pianos they will eventually play something(someone is bound to be right sometime). ........................I offer this example: When Connolly 'disappeared' for three days in the hills and emerged persuaded to join in the Easter assault on Dublin,he is supposed to have said: "Alright,Pearse,but all that will happen is that we will all be killed - and Dublin will be in ruins!" As he sat in his chair waiting to be shot dead, his last thoughts may well have been: "Pearse, I told you so!" God rest his Soul.

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GeorgeDillon | Dec 09, 2010, 12:55 PM EST

towngate: I have no idea what you are trying to say. Are you attacking people who warned against joining the EEC as it was originally constituted, and the many voices that warned against acceding to the integration of the EU and the imposition of a common currency? There were many keen critiques of the EU and where it might lead Ireland, though they tended to be denied space and drowned out in the compliant Irish media. Beginning with people like the guy mentioned, Crotty, and including people like Tony Coughlan and more recently Ganley. I hear Ganley is going to run for the Dail. If so I'll take a couple weeks off to go work in his campaign. The stupid Irish should have listened to Ganley, instead they listened to the wide boys and shysters and village idiots of Fianna Fail. Even pseudo-radicals like Fintan O'Toole were big supporters of the Lisbon Treay, probably because they are Mass Immigration addicts.

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Towngate | Dec 09, 2010, 09:53 AM EST

......foresight is wonderful viewed through hindsight! ... like that monkey chained to a piano ...

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