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Periscope by Niall O'Dowd

Catholic vote is key to 2012 presidential election -- Barack Obama controversy on contraception a huge issue

Posted on Wednesday, February 15, 2012 at 07:45 AM

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President Barack Obama shakes hands with Pope Benedict XVI

In nine of the past ten US presidential elections the majority of the Catholic vote has gone to the person who won the election.

Little wonder then that the furor over the Bishop’s attacks on President Obama’s contraception plan created such waves.

In five of those elections, the Catholic vote was within a point of the overall margin of victory, a clear indicator of how vital the vote is.

There is a massive push on for the Catholic vote in both political parties this election season.

As the critical swing vote in key states, they will sway the election.
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The Reagan Democrats, the Irish, Italian, Polish, Catholic blue collar vote, so prominent in Ohio, Pennsylvania and key Midwest states, has chosen the winner a stunning 90 per cent of the time.

Little wonder that in 2008, Barack Obama trumpeted the support of now US Ambassador to Ireland Dan Rooney, Chairman of the Pittsburgh Steelers and as Irish Catholic as you can get.

Rooney campaigned widely for the president and was seen as a vital factor in Obama’s victory in Pennsylvania.

Obama won the Catholic vote by 54 per cent to 46 per cent nationally against John McCain though it must be noted that number includes Hispanic Catholics.

Catholic voter make up a quarter of the electorate and as Gerald Seib wrote in The Wall Street Journal this week “They rank right up there with Ohio as a bellwether of presidential-election outcomes.”

It is not surprising then that the furor over the Obama contraception debate has become so heated. There is a huge amount on the line.

The Catholic Bishops have vehemently opposed his plan but the key question is whether their flock is behind them?

Opinion polls of Catholics indicate they are not.

Several polls show Catholics, by a wide margin, feel that contraceptive care should be covered in any health care plan regardless of where that plan is for.

That would hardly be surprising Bishops oppose contraception but 98 per cent of Catholics use them, likewise the bishop’s stances on gays and abortion are supported far less by the ordinary rank and file Catholics.

That fundamental disconnect has only grown larger since the church sex scandals has removed much of the authority of the bishops.

Parishioners now feel less inclined than ever to take their cue from Rome, especially when it involves matters of sexuality.

At the same time there is hardly overwhelming support for the Obama position either, and it begs the question of who will eventually end up winning out on this debate?

Will the contraceptive issue hurt Obama in November or will the Church leaders once again prove they are out of touch with many ordinary Catholics and how they live their lives?

It may not matter much if the latest opinion poll from The New York Times showing Rick Santorum ahead of Mitt Romney in a national poll of Republican voters is to be believed.

Santorum, a deeply conservative Catholic, is simply too extreme and would prove a disaster for the Republican Party.

Ironically, with a Catholic candidate running, it may be the one time their vote is not critical.

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26 comments

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JBRAFTREE | Feb 15, 2012, 01:36 PM EST

Obama and his troops have stepped in a bit of doggy doo. They should keep their mitts off Catholics and their views of contraception.

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BishopSean | Feb 15, 2012, 12:43 PM EST

Jesus says we should be Salt and Light in the world, or the world has the right to judge us (trample underfoot). While condoms, etc., are easily available (often free), abortions must be paid for--many times by taxpayers through Planned Parenthood (some US$ 500 per annum, not counting NGO contributions).It seems to me this is really about making abortions more respectable and available--but I cannot bring myself to say this is not an "ethical" or "moral" issue. (I dislike the phrase "social" issue, which only sounds like different tribal preferences. Abortion is the direct taking of an innocent (preborn, or partially born) person. How can anyone seriously accept and declare the idea that preborn children are only "clumps of tissue of the mother," (as PPI argues), when the unborn child has the other gender 50% of the time, and different DNA 100% of the time? Abortion is not even a moral question for some people anymore? How tragic, if this is the case.

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Murph46 | Feb 15, 2012, 12:39 PM EST

As I recall ,40% of O'Bamas 2008 vote was Catholic,they talk about the undecided as settling! Not if he disses 40% -So it is big!

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pilib04 | Feb 15, 2012, 11:56 AM EST

I agree with Rugby. Niall is creating a headline. Catholics haven't voted in a Block since Kennedy. Its ridiculous to suggest that Catholics are a voting bloc. There is absolutely no evidence to support this theory.

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pilib04 | Feb 15, 2012, 11:53 AM EST

Catholics use artificial birth control methods. The Bishops are not going to influence our votes one iota. Those voting with the Bishops would have voted for Santorum or Romney anyway. What the Bishops fail to understand is that birth control is NONE OF THEIR BUSINESS! Catholics made that clear a over a half century ago.

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SeamusMor | Feb 15, 2012, 11:46 AM EST

I wonder if there really is a "Catholic Vote" anymore. America is divided into two camps; those with money, and those who want it. Taxes and Benefits are the means by which wealth is transferred from the former group to the latter. Pocket books, not priests, pastors, Imams, and Rabbis determine the votes of Catholics, Protestants, Muslims, and Jews on election day.

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Murph46 | Feb 15, 2012, 11:17 AM EST

Obama screwed the pooch on this one.bishops are writing letters to parishes!

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jetsnoone | Feb 15, 2012, 10:39 AM EST

There certainly is an Irish vote, but it can and does get syphoned off by those Irish who consider other issues as more important. This does not necessarily make them wrong -- and as free people we can vote as we see fit. Examples of the syphoning off would be those who vote Democrat due to union or social issues.... some Irish feel the Dems give the unions a better shake and some Irish need the party that gives them gay rights and abortion....They,however, will not answer to William Donohue but to God, the Father Almighty. And, no doubt God hates abortionists. How dare anyone take the life of an innocent child!. How evil!

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PhlutiePhan | Feb 15, 2012, 09:45 AM EST

William Donohue of the Catholic League made it clear that this furor is not over contraception. It is the matter of using abortion as a form of birth control. Obama is opening the door to future abortion controversy. Contraception is a mild mannered innocuous term that I support in dialogue. However, Plan B is abortion and that is only the beginning. What happens after the election when a bishop speaks from the pulpit against abortion? Will he go to jail as alluded to by Cardinal George of Chicago with his successor being executed as he has also stated. You have to look at what the meaning of "is" is. "Is' isn't looking too promising for people of faith right now.

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hollabackgurl | Feb 15, 2012, 09:34 AM EST

The Catholic vote is important, but Catholics use contraception. The Bishops, hoping to score political points, planned this confrontation for months and just harpooned themselves in the end. Now they look like what they are: shills for the unpopular GOP. Yesterday's men.

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rugbyplayer | Feb 15, 2012, 09:32 AM EST

I think, Niall, you are mistaken. There is no Catholic vote though the pompous American Catholic hierarchy claim to speak for Catholics which is no longer true. Contraception is a non-issue except for the desperate Republican presidential wannabees searching for phoney battles.

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