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| Mitt Romney |
Despite all the negative press and the furor over abortion and Medicare the presidential race is still Mitt Romney’s to lose.
The latest national polls are all within the margin of error and while Romney is behind in most of them a good convention and a good debate performance should certainly see him elected.
He should be ahead. The economy, the one measure that is uppermost in most minds, is still pretty lousy. Unemployment is too high and there will be no significant relief in sight by November.
This is a center-right country and Republicans are usually better positioned to win presidential races as a result.
It is amazing to consider how George Bush defeated Al Gore despite the fine economic times under Clinton. The country leans right as its default position.
Given all that, the landscape is pretty much settled and it is overwhelmingly one that favors a challenger.
A wise old GOP figure told me last week that this election will end up one of two ways — a narrow win for Obama or a landslide for Romney.
It is easy to see why. If the issue becomes the last four years and how the economy has performed, Obama will lose badly. If it becomes how flawed a candidate Romney is then it is likely that Obama will hang on narrowly.
Obama is currently somehow staying afloat despite the bad economy and is trading heavily on the perception of him as a decent man trying to do his best in tough times.
He connects better than Romney who seems incapable of real human emotion or appearing in the least vulnerable.
A recent US Today poll noted that a “majority of Americans, 54 percent, believe Obama is more likable, compared with 31 percent for Mitt Romney, giving the president a 23 percentage point advantage.”
All of Romney’s career choices have ended up well for him and he lives a gilded life – but that is not what plays with voters.
They want someone who has a life pretty much like their own, full of struggles and emotion and setbacks and triumphs. It doesn’t matter that they are rich, just that they are normal.
Normal is not what Romney has succeeded in showing us just yet. He has appeared either too perfect or too robotic, lacking warmth and empathy. But given the nature of this presidential year, which is still utterly unpredictable, the race is still his to lose given that the economic fundamentals are not going to get any better.
This race is at best for Obama a 50-50 toss-up.
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Switch to the desktop site to post a comment.Frosty38 | Sep 22, 2012, 10:49 AM EDT
BrianO where did you get that from he has not ever been poor. I guess you haven't ether . as far as the MS my sister has it. She is on new meds and is doing great. I lost a sister from breast cancer she was treated at the MAss General had no follow ups poor doctors no bone scans so i know what it like to have these struggles
BrianO | Aug 28, 2012, 12:47 PM EDT
The author concludes"They want someone who has a life pretty much like their own, full of struggles and emotion and setbacks and triumphs." Romney has a wife with MS. and a Breast cancer survivor, sure no struggle there, They lived in a one bedroom apartment during their college years in boston since Romney donated his inheritance and wanted to make it on his own, you don't hear much about this because the majority of news outlets don't like the message. Romney's problem is he is brilliant, successful, and not as Ruthless as Obama.
EphraimKibbey | Aug 27, 2012, 08:23 PM EDT
IF Romney wins, it will be because the GOP was successful in disenfranchising millions of voters in states all across the country. Between narrow ID laws and curtailment of early voting, the country may see a very reduced electorate November 6th. We will have to wait until then to see if they also use the tactic of limiting the number of voting machines in Democratic precincts. Why are the Republicans so UNAMERICAN that they believe it is OK to steal this election as they did in 2000 and 2004 and when will the TRUE Americans stand up for everyone's right to vote?
eiriamach | Aug 27, 2012, 02:47 PM EDT
howareya, do you think we can be taken in by a lie, or do you really not understand the difference between an executive order and a LAW? The GOP voted down the Dream Act--TWICE! There's no hope of dealing with immigration problems without a huge change in Nov. elections. After the second "no" on the Dream Act, President Obama drafted an executive order to federal agencies. The order stops-- for two years-- departments of Immigration and Customs, Border Patrols, Homeland Security, etc. from deporting children and young people under age 30 if they meet eligibility criteria. Obama said clearly to the nation, "This is not amnesty. This is not immunity. This is not a path to citizenship. It's not a permanent fix. This is a temporary, stopgap measure that lets us focus our resources wisely while giving a degree of relief and hope to ... patriotic young people. It's the right thing to do." It was the best solution to a human rights problem that the President could enact without Congress killing it! If you want immigration FIXED, vote Democrat Nov. 6.
howareya | Aug 27, 2012, 12:28 PM EDT
I was willing to give Obama a chance at the beginning. But what I have seen of him makes me very afraid. I hate the way he pushes through his agendas. Like the Dream Act he just pushed through without going through Congress!!! The debate on whether it is the right thing to do or not is irrelevent right now...It's the way he is doing things that is totally wrong!!!!! And his health care bill that was pushed through at the nth hour with nobody reading the whole thing!!! I just don't like it. Sorry but I no longer trust Obama! Not too wild about Romney either but we have a poor choice all together.
FastEddy | Aug 27, 2012, 10:37 AM EDT
"Humanize"? How about because he is human? "It is amazing to consider how George Bush defeated Al Gore despite the fine economic times under Clinton. ..." And that would be because AlGore is such an obvious fascist. (Bush not so obvious.)
TheNetherlands | Aug 26, 2012, 01:06 PM EDT
Depending whose side your on is the pseudo belief that Romney is in the lead, as an ex Mass resident who couldn't afford to live in the state I grew up in anymore and moved out when Romney was governor can happily say I am one of the Blue staters who helped the state of Nevada go from Red to Blue and will be doing it again!! I think Obama is great and can't wait til obama care comes in since I am without health care and Nevada is one of the worse states to live in without it.
McNamara31 | Aug 26, 2012, 11:15 AM EDT
aherlowglen Spoken as a true priest with God in his heart, and not a political party as Dolan has chosen. I agree this is a dangerous game that Dolan is playing and he can't see the long term ramifications through his bravado.The GOP already had Karl Rove to manipulate the votes of good christian people, we don't need Dolan doing the same. Have you seen the fire and brim stone commercials airing on catholic tv, aimed (my opinion) at scaring the elderly with the fires of hell?
surfsidetx3 | Aug 25, 2012, 10:55 PM EDT
Al Gore lost because of Ralph Nader. Al Gore won the popular vote. Had I been in Dade county Florida I would have turned out a 5,000 plurality in that county alone for Gore.I would have made sure every Jewish lady was escorted to the polls. With my great NJ political training I could make Texas democratic. Republicans need 40% turnout or less to win Texas. They could easily be usurped. Adolph Rove, given his nazi lineage, would be shocked that a democracy awakens like a sleeping tiger.
Nicomax | Aug 25, 2012, 09:05 PM EDT
I continue to question why those with persistent low incomes and net worth in states like West Virginia, Tenn., Arkansas, etc. continue to vote for swells like Romney, and now Ryan, who have little interest in their being able to climb the economic ladder? These unfortunates also depend to a large degree on public institutions such as schools, hospitals, transportation, parks, etc., all of which the Romney/Ryan/Rand ticket want to curtail.
McNamara31 | Aug 25, 2012, 07:58 PM EDT
Win the election, or buy the election? Because he certainly bought the GOP primary.
boydshield | Aug 25, 2012, 07:45 PM EDT
Some one on Romney's staff or a close friend, PLEAE send this to him!
boydshield | Aug 25, 2012, 06:40 PM EDT
The Democrats have to be a lot better to win - unfortunately that's just how the US is beyond the coast. Romney has made some terrible errors on abortion, Medicare, tax returns and foreign tax havens and yet he is still neck and neck. The Republicans have also got huge amounts of money to spend on ads. I'm afraid they will win.
aloistmartin | Aug 25, 2012, 06:21 PM EDT
The Idea for Romney would be to Re-Humiliate Barack Obama. All Obama`s success since Romney`s entrance into the Presidential Race, have come as a result of having someone but himself, ( Or George Bush ? ) to blame for the County`s Social, Economic, and Diplomatic Woes. I. Think Ronmney`s Choice of a Running mate further to the Right than himself, proves Mitt is trying to re-establish the link between Administration Dis-Satisfaction, and the rising tide of Right Wing Reactionary-ism. Looks like an All Or Nothing effort from Mitt Romney. He will iether take advantage of the Class War Polarization Crisis, and draw a clear line in the sand, between himself and the Liberal Party; Or face the fact that America simply is not ready for the South ( Or Jesus Christ ? ) To Rise Again ?
1661996usmc | Aug 25, 2012, 05:42 PM EDT
Fortunately Mitt can't "Humanize" himself. He's too arrogant to to lower his superiority complex.
1661996usmc | Aug 25, 2012, 03:24 PM EDT
How can he humanize himself? He is anti poor. He is pro very rich. He is against abortion, yet he is in favor of people suffering and dying slowly by preventing them access to health care. He certainly is out for himself, promoting tax cuts for the very rich. (himself and his fellow Republicans) He want to put more money into the military. Haven't enough young Americans died already to protect the oil assets of the wealthy. He will probably enter another area of conflict to ensure his brothers in arms will make millions or even billions in military sales. All the good that Obama has done to reduce the loss of lives inflicted by the Republicans (Bush & cronies) will be undone. A large amount of the US budget is necessary to protect the USA from terrorists who retaliated against the US as a result of the US meddling in foreign countries for financial reasons. Perhaps if he really believed in and adopted all Christian principles he would be a choice candidate. I believe no matter what he says before the election, the camouflage will come off if he is elected president and then God help the poor and disadvantaged.
allentown | Aug 25, 2012, 02:45 PM EDT
There is still a lot of campaigning left. The Romney-Ryan team can only get stronger. As I predicted, Gallop's Running Poll August 18-24 has Obama @ 46 and Romney @ 46. Therefore, after the Republican Convention Romney will be up by 5-6%.
Pittsburghkid | Aug 25, 2012, 02:44 PM EDT
Obama has made too many bad choices. Of course the people are lying to the pollister, because they do not want to appear racist.
wilhoef | Aug 25, 2012, 02:11 PM EDT
Aherlowglen - If you are a Catholic Priest, then I am St. Joseph!
aherlowglen | Aug 25, 2012, 01:40 PM EDT
I feel that whoever wins the White House the Church should steer clear of PARTISAN involvement. Cardinal Dolan is playing a dangerous game. I hope Obama wins. I say that as a Catholic priest because every intolerant bigot seems to be against him. As a Church we seem to be endorsing Romney even though we deny it.
JimmyJK | Aug 25, 2012, 01:26 PM EDT
How can you Vote for Romney / Ryan? They believe our economy will only improve by drastically reducing taxes on the top of the top earners. Their environmental record is Atrocius. Ryan does not believe in climate change !!!! Only 97% of all scientists believe it. They also want to open up any and all land for use by any corporation and/or energy co. They want to end Medicare Medicaid - that's nice for granny... Do Republican Americans know what Big Governmenf is? It includes the military by the way.... And police and teachers etc Stop the racist motivations and just come out and say you can't stand the poor leaches of society..,. Do you also have millions of dollars in offshore accounts ? Then vote for Romney.... Do you also hate all unions? Vote Ryan We all need to read all of true Facts not the lies They are anti woman's rights with their ultra conservative views on abortion
MegK311 | Aug 25, 2012, 12:54 PM EDT
How could anyone want to live through 4 more years of Obama. It scares me to think what he would do if he had another 4 years. Neither Obama or Romney have a life like mine or most people I know. Actually we don't know enough about Obama because he has spent millions to have his records sealed. What could he be hiding? Look at all the radical people Obama has associated with over the years. Romney's lifestyle is very different from mine but of the 2 he offers the greater hope. I do think he has had a clean cut life and is honest. Obama though he told us he would be transperent has been the exact opposite. A lot of his friends have questionable characters. So though I did not vote for Romney during the primaries I will vote for him in November. As for George Bush he may not have been perfect but I did like him. Something nobody seems to remember is that during the last year of the Clinton administration the economy was in trouble and George Bush inherited that. I remember because I lost a lot of money. A lot of you have very selective memories when it comes to the liberals and the Democrats. Bill Clinton got away with a lot because a lot of you thought he was a charming rascal. But he did a much better job of being President than Obama. A film to watch out for is "The Hope & The Change". All I ask of you is that you keep an open mind and stop the nasty name calling.
garbo55 | Aug 25, 2012, 12:50 PM EDT
Susan 724 when Romney left office at the end of his term he had a balanced budget, he cut waste where it needed to be cut. Then along comes Patrick ( Obamas bum kisser) to dismantle the balanced budget. Also Romney and his Lt. Governor Kerry never took a paycheck while in office.The first thing Patrick did in office after destroying the budget was to spend thousands of dollars on drapes for the office.
Breathnach | Aug 25, 2012, 12:44 PM EDT
People will vote for Obama because we still have not forgotten the Bush years. Hopefully a cold day in hell before a regime like that foisted on the country again.
CitizenWhy | Aug 25, 2012, 12:39 PM EDT
There have been more jobs craeted under Obama than under previous Republicans. Obama is the lowest spending President since Eisenhower. But right wing propaganda has convinced many Americans otherwise.
francisquinn | Aug 25, 2012, 12:11 PM EDT
How can anyone consider voting for BO.... 1. 8.3 unemployed 2. Deficit in 4 years close to 6 billion 3. Healthcare that nobody wants. 4. Deep deception on the cost of Obmacare. he said abou $900billion...now a few years later between $ 2 and 2.6 trillion....he msut think we are stupid. 5. Hope and Change....pure BS....what he means is distribute income..... I could go on and on...he is in overhead...
hermitTalker | Aug 25, 2012, 11:43 AM EDT
Stacking the last 3.5 years against a R-R ticket, given the huge bailout, thousands of un-read pages of the Stimulus cash, and Health Care Bill, and the pursuit of Keynesian Economics- borrow your way out of the mess. There is a strong possibility that the R-R policies will work.
susan724 | Aug 25, 2012, 11:39 AM EDT
wjb1tex - he inherited his money from his daddy and then took it and invested in a company in which he made millions off the backs of the fired employees, period! He was a lousy Governor in Massachusetts and the only thing he did well there was his healthcare program which he refuses to talk about - Oh, and anyone can get into Harvard or Yale if you have the money and a father who was famous - look at dummy Bush!
TreeDetective | Aug 25, 2012, 11:20 AM EDT
I am really reading this on Irish Central? Is there hope for the Irish enamored by this failed administration? Maybe someone needs to go out and dig up some more obscure ancestors to distract voters.
jamthecat | Aug 25, 2012, 11:19 AM EDT
wjb...if all it takes is brains to make a lot of money, then the Mafias are made up of geniuses and bank robbers are Rhodes Scholars. Romney ma=de his money by destroying other people's lives and brags about being able to do so. If he's elected -- and despite Patrick's claim, that is still a big IF -- then this country will collapse. We will see a bankrupt America by 2016. But people like you will still blame it all on the Democrats and liberals. BTW, Mr. Roberts, Al Gore won in 2000. The only reason Bush wound up in the White House is his brother and Katherine Harris did their utmost to screw up the Florida ballot and then the GOP got the Supreme Court to anoint him president, in direct violation of the Constitution. And then look what happened...
wjb1tex | Aug 25, 2012, 11:12 AM EDT
susan724----"he would also have to grow a brain"---------------For all the reasons to not vote for him accusing him of not having a brain is really dumb. Or are you a successful millionaire with multiple degrees ?
susan724 | Aug 25, 2012, 11:01 AM EDT
"if he can somehow 'humanize' himself?" Don't you think that's a very big "if?" Oh, but let's hope he takes some humanization classes, but then he would also have to grow a brain - stem cell anyone?
cillowen | Aug 25, 2012, 10:45 AM EDT
the white guy is craved
jerrydonovan | Aug 25, 2012, 10:36 AM EDT
Mr.Roberts your head must have been on an inspection tour of your hemorrhoids when you wrote this article.Despite all the money that Karl Rove and theKroc brothers have thrown into this election ,despite the massive effort by the Republican party to LIMIT voter turnout,President Obama will win this election relatively easy.Why do I say this?,simple,because unlike the Romney/Ryan cartel, the majority of the working people cannot be bought!We see through their lies and their shell games.As this election develops I am sure that we will be involved in some interesting,,so lets just deal in reputable facts not flights of fancy.For Romney to win in my opinion it would take divine intercession.Dolan is not high up enough in the food chain to be considered as divine intercession.
kerry214 | Aug 25, 2012, 10:12 AM EDT
Correction Mr. Roberts, George Bush did not win the election against Al Gore. With help from Jeb Bush, Katherine Harris, and the Supreme Court he ripped off that election. And in the 2004 election he won Ohio because Karl Rove removed polling machine's from voting districts that were heavily Democratic, leaving voters standing in line for 10 hours.
TisEyerish | Aug 25, 2012, 10:04 AM EDT
Heaven help all of us who are the "new poor" thanks to the bank failure back during the Bush administration. That's all I have to say.