People and Politics by Patrick Roberts
Election prediction: Christine O'Donnell will prevent Senate takeover by GOP
Posted on Sunday, October 31, 2010 at 09:37 PM
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In wave elections like this one, the party coming on strong will almost always win the close races.
That is why the vast majority of close House and Senate races on Tuesday will eventually go to Republicans.
The fact that many of the seats contested are in states and districts where Democrats essentially 'rented' traditional Republican seats means that most of those seats will go right back to their natural home.
I estimate Republicans will pick up 50 seats or so in the House when all is said and done, not a very large governing majority there, but enough to make trouble for Obama.
I think most close seats in the senate will go their way to.
That is why I think Republicans will likely pick up nine or ten seats in the senate elections this time but ironically will be denied power in the senate by their very own Tea Party queen.
That would be Christine O'Donnell in Delaware who has no hope against Chris Coons.
If Republican voters had chosen the more moderate and widely liked Michael Castle this race would have been a shoo-in and very likely have given the 11th senate seat to Republican allowing them to take charge in both chambers.
The fact that O'Donnell was known to be a complete goofball did not stop Republican primary voters electing her.
This is not someone who destroyed her own candidacy after her election, it was well known beforehand that she was not senate caliber.
That decision will come back to haunt Republicans in what otherwise will be a very good night for them.
I see the House as 228 Republicans 207 Democrats and the senate 51-49 to Democrats or possibly 50 -50 with Vice President Biden's tie vote the difference.
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