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People and Politics by Patrick Roberts

Election prediction: Christine O'Donnell will prevent Senate takeover by GOP

Posted on Sunday, October 31, 2010 at 09:37 PM
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In wave elections like this one, the party coming on strong will almost always win the close races.

That is why the vast majority of close House and Senate races on Tuesday will eventually go to Republicans.

The fact that many of the seats contested are in states and districts where Democrats essentially 'rented' traditional Republican seats means that most of those seats will go right back to their natural home.

I estimate Republicans will pick up 50 seats or so in the House when all is said and done, not a very large governing majority there, but enough to make trouble for Obama.

I think most close seats in the senate will go their way to.

That is why I think Republicans will likely pick up nine or ten seats in the senate elections this time but ironically will be denied power in the senate by their very own Tea Party queen.

That would be Christine O'Donnell in Delaware who has no hope against Chris Coons.

If Republican voters had chosen the more moderate and widely liked Michael Castle this race would have been a shoo-in and very likely have given the 11th senate seat to Republican allowing them to take charge in both chambers.

The fact that O'Donnell was known to be a complete goofball did not stop Republican primary voters electing her.

This is not someone who destroyed her own candidacy after her election, it was well known beforehand that she was not senate caliber.

That decision will come back to haunt Republicans in what otherwise will be a very good night for them.

I see the House as 228 Republicans 207 Democrats and the senate 51-49 to Democrats or possibly 50 -50 with Vice President Biden's tie vote the difference.


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58 comments

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DennisQ | Nov 01, 2010, 09:07 PM EDT
Support the Constitution! Republicans pledging change can talk in generalities but they can't talk specifics; they don't dare. As soon as they lay out the details, they will encounter fierce resistance.

This is going to be an inconsequential election, even if the Republicans take the House with fifty seats. Their biggest problems is that they don't have ideas. I've repeatedly challenged both maloney and hancock to name one specific thing the Republicans will work to accomplish. They never answer except with the same global generalities that defines Republican so-called "ideas."

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maloney | Nov 01, 2010, 08:51 PM EDT
That's PROUD & PATRIOTIC bastard Republicans thank you.

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jamthecat | Nov 01, 2010, 08:16 PM EDT
If any of the the idiot contenders offered up the the Tea Party get in, the Democratic leadership has only itself to blame...and I place Obama right at the head of it. Like an abused wife, he did everything he could to facilitate compromise with the GOP, got kicked in the face and went back to them, over and over. And then he allowed himself to be blamed for the chaos they wrought. I'm as liberal as they comes, but the man's a fool and deserves no more than one term in office. And maybe the chaos of tomorrow and the days after, once those maniacs are sworn in, will wake up the Americans who actually care about this country and we'll be able to start correcting our path in 2012. If we don't, America is dead...and it's the bastard Republicans who will have killed her.

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hancock | Nov 01, 2010, 08:12 PM EDT
Obama is our president, the biggest joke of all.

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GerryMaine | Nov 01, 2010, 06:56 PM EDT
O'Donnell was chosen by a majority of the Republican primary voters in Delaware in September. She had a right to run for the nomination. Republican voters had a right to vote for her. She won. She represents a majority of the Republican voters in Delaware. Simple.

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maloney | Nov 01, 2010, 06:50 PM EDT
michealcollins..go back & finish school. Oh ye of little brain.

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michealcollins | Nov 01, 2010, 06:26 PM EDT
I chuckle at the thought that this women could become a US Senator, but then again, Sarah Palin was nominated for Vice President. What in the name of God is going on in America? I have lived here 23 years, and I love my adopted country, I became a citizen in 1999 and I teach American history. Could some one with common sense explain to me how we have sunk so low in our search for leadership. If this is the best, parties have to offer the country, I have sold myself short. I may not be the smartest pencil in the box, but Palin, O'Donnell, Miller, and Angle have inspired me. I should run for office. I could do a better job than them. But wait, I cannot, I don't have the financial backing, and I am not prepared to sell my soul to be influenced (bought) by lobbyists (enemies of the Republic). My conscience would not allow it. Thomas Paine once said that "Republicanism" was not only a form of government, but also a moral code of behaviour. No matter how well designed your government is, it will succumb to tyranny without virtuous citizens. A vituous citizen is someone who is industrious and is willing to make sacrifices for the greater good of the country. They cannot afford to be self serving, greed and corrupt, otherwise the Republic will fail. Well folks we are beyond that point, and we as citizens have no one to blame but ourselves. Don't confuse this with the Tea Party People. They talk a good game, but really don't give a damn about the country. They are all for themselves, and there is nothing virtuous about them.

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hollabackgurl | Nov 01, 2010, 05:51 PM EDT
Vote GOP tomorrow becuase the rich don't have enough tax breaks or enough freedom to pollute our air and water. The GOP took our record breaking surplus and turned it into a deficit that nearly destoryed us. Let's help them finish the job! Vote for them to destroy medicare, social security, education and civil rights and equal pay for women. Vote for the party that was in power during every major banking crisis since 1800. Maybe they can start another needless trillion dollar war in the Middle East.

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Madeleine | Nov 01, 2010, 05:47 PM EDT
I think O'Donne4ll will win, most Republicans, and some Dems too are voting for her just to get a Republican in,and a democrat out. If you have ever heard her speak one on one in a radio show or on TV she doesn't sound as goofy as she does when she is being interviewed on a nation wide channel by some socialist who is trying to make a fool out of her, she is not that sophisticated but she sure beats Nancy Pelosi and Barbara Boxer or that lunatic Janet Napolitano. In this case we will vote for the runt of the litter and pass on the progressives, if thats what they call them now.. it used to be marxists.

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newcanaan | Nov 01, 2010, 04:54 PM EDT
pat you changed photo, boss pissed at you ?

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maloney | Nov 01, 2010, 03:58 PM EDT
McNabb...your prediction is correct. The America of the constitution, love it or leave it.

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Irish1798 | Nov 01, 2010, 03:09 PM EDT
One thing I am not is a brainwashed tea partier who can only insult those of us who think with the same old rhetoric about drinking koolaid. I prefer not to be thrown back into the dark ages by the likes of this crazy fanatic.

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hollabackgurl | Nov 01, 2010, 02:55 PM EDT
Keep your dirty gov'mint hands offa our post offices, medicare, social security, education, roads and infrastructure! Health and education and social security are socialism I tell you! We don't want no restrictions on the road to total anarchy!

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MikeTexas | Nov 01, 2010, 02:53 PM EDT
As a Conservative, Ms O'donnell gives a bad name to conservatives and the Tea Party, and women. She's an original Anna Nicole...With all due respect Anna.

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mhichil | Nov 01, 2010, 02:13 PM EDT
O'Donnell lost the witch vote!

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