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Manhattan Diary by Cahir O'Doherty

ADP reports 201,000 new jobs added in August

Posted on Thursday, September 06, 2012 at 10:02 AM

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Even their critics admit it, the Democrats have been having a flawless national convention. No one has been berating an empty chair, instead their steely focus and resolve have been remarkable.

Featuring a formidable and deeply personal speech by Michelle Obama that was described as 'masterful' by Fox News, and a brilliantly detailed endorsement of the presidents policies by Bill Clinton last night, the GOP must be disheartened to see the obvious public enthusiasm and media coverage the DNC is generating.

In particular Paul Ryan came in for a mauling from the big dog last night: 'So - so President Obama and the Democrats didn’t weaken Medicare; they strengthened Medicare. Now, when Congressman Ryan looked into that TV camera and attacked President Obama’s Medicare savings as, quote, the biggest, coldest power play, I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry - because that $716 billion is exactly, to the dollar, the same amount of Medicare savings that he has in his own budget. You got to get one thing — it takes some brass to attack a guy for doing what you did.'

That moment prompted laughter and a huge round of applause.

But perhaps most worrying of all for Mitt Romney's chances is this morning's breaking news that ADP employer services have announced the US has added 201,000 new jobs in August. That's a much stronger figure than the 140,000 consensus and it's up from the 173,000 added in July.

As though anticipating those inspiring numbers last night Clinton concluded: 'Listen to me, now. No president - no president, not me, not any of my predecessors, no one could have fully repaired all the damage that he found in just four years. Now - but - he has - he has laid the foundation for a new, modern, successful economy of shared prosperity. And if you will renew the president’s contract, you will feel it. You will feel it.'

Right on cue the best employment statistics of the year to date are released.

As Clinton said himself last night: 'Now, people ask me all the time how we got four surplus budgets in a row. What new ideas did we bring to Washington? I always give a one-word answer: Arithmetic.'

Obama's numbers are adding up to a re-election.

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ancavker | Sep 10, 2012, 10:02 AM EDT

hollabuck: What do any of your additional ramblings have to do with the fact that the ADP number was bogus, and I had to correct you. You have not responded to that fact.

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BrianO | Sep 08, 2012, 01:24 PM EDT

Ephraim Breaking news if you change the numbers and do math differently you will get a number that is different.

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BrianO | Sep 08, 2012, 01:22 PM EDT

Hoola, someday you will have what you have worked for taken away by the wealth distributors, then you will understand.In the name of fairness.

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hollabackgurl | Sep 07, 2012, 05:26 PM EDT

Must every issue in the conservative mindset be reduced to a witless catch cry to seduce the dumbest people in the nation? The Democratic Party do not condemn capitalism, they are actually protecting it from the oligarchs who want to create little private caliphates for billionaires that exist independently of the United States, with help from the GOP.

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ancavker | Sep 07, 2012, 04:28 PM EDT

hollabuck: Go back to sleep Dear.

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ancavker | Sep 07, 2012, 04:28 PM EDT

Ephraim: No to boast, it was not hindsight. The ADP number is notoriously wvolatile and wrong more than right as I noted yesterday. It is merely a snap shot. As far as the numbers, employment typically picks up in the summer, part time seasonal jobs, and fewer lay offs in summer months. The fact todays BLS numbers were reflected of August shows how weak the job front is, more so when compared with the downward revisions in July and June as well. The Fall up until right before Thanksgving typically sees a rise in layoffs, and then tapers off until after the New Year. A couple of major Wall St firms announced big lay offs today. And it will be the mid level people who will be hit too. The secrtaries, Managers, not just the highly paid. Something the bash Wall St crowd refuses to understand.

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BrianO | Sep 07, 2012, 04:26 PM EDT

I love how comrade cahir loves economic stats when they seem to help his heartthrob barrack hussien obama, I'll be waiting for his rewrite and corections.

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EphraimKibbey | Sep 07, 2012, 02:33 PM EDT

@ancavker - In hind sight, you obviously were correct about the numbers! Have you been in your position long enough to give us a seasonal perspective? I have been around awhile but not in a position where I dealt constantly with the numbers. In the good times, citizens tend to pay less attention to the stats. My general impression is that employment usually goes through a summer slump and them picks up again in the fall. Does your experience back me up or am I mistaken?

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BrianO | Sep 07, 2012, 02:29 PM EDT

I hope the dow doubles in the next month, but you tell me that wall street is the enemy. they are the 1% that are evil and must be taxed out of existance, please explain.

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hollabackgurl | Sep 07, 2012, 12:01 PM EDT

The DOW Jones soared to its highest level since January 2007 yesterday. That's the poll that really counts. As does the record breaking audience/social media numbers for the DNC.

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BrianO | Sep 07, 2012, 09:17 AM EDT

Hmm seems this number of by 120,000, and 396,000 leave workforce, and people on foodstamps highest in history, and median income drops by $4000.Way to go Barry.

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ancavker | Sep 07, 2012, 08:59 AM EDT

Hollabuckgurl: The below item is for you my Dear. Now going forward, please do not comment on what you do not know. As I said I am in this every day. WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Job growth slowed sharply in August, the Labor Department said Friday. Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 96,000, lower than the 125,000 gain expected by Wall Street economists. Adding to the sense of weakness, job growth in the past two months was revised down by 41,000. The unemployment rate declined to 8.1% in August from 8.3% in the previous month but the drop was due to a smaller labor force. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to hold steady at 8.3%. Average hourly earnings were flat at $23.52. Earnings are up 1.7% in the past year. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours.

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peterson | Sep 06, 2012, 09:06 PM EDT

Figures don't lie --but liars figure !!

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seanomelb | Sep 06, 2012, 06:40 PM EDT

Ephraim how can those below defend the indefensible. The Romney?Ryan act is just a bag of lies wrapped up in teabags

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ancavker | Sep 06, 2012, 04:08 PM EDT

Ephraim: Thousands of people have lost their positions in the private sector as well, and they have no unions to protect them. There were several instances in the last couple of years where teachers and policemen in a number of towns/cities in NJ and Ct were asked to take pay cuts to save jobs, and they responded with a resounding no.

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