Quality Road can upset Zenyatta in the Breeder's Cup Classic today at Churchill Downs.
The world will be rooting for Zenyatta, but the fact is that her Beyer speed figures, while impressive, are nowhere near what Todd Pletcher's star, Quality Road, can run at his best.
Judging by the evidence of the first day of the Breeder's Cup, where he quickly saddled a winner, Todd Pletcher's horses are at their best.
Quality Road was incredibly impressive all last year until he became unglued at the start of last year's classic.
That will not happen this year. The horse has been perfect at the gate since and the race sets up perfectly for him.
That is because of the presence of Haynesfield, a committed front runner who will give Quality Road a target to run at.
Zenyatta has never met a horse like Quality Road on dirt. Sure, she beat a top field last year, but that was on her home surface in California of artificial dirt.
Now she meets not just Quality Road but also Blame, a tough as nails horse, who was deeply impressive winning the Whitney at Saratoga.
Blame is also a course specialist at Churchill Downs which may well stand to him.
So in the straight I expect Haynesfield to be passed by Quality Road with Blame not far behind and Zenyatta unleashing her powerful kick.
I think the horse that gets first run however, in this case, Quality Road, will triumph.
My one, two, three is Quality Road, Blame and the gallant Zenyatta. Best outsider is Haynesfield.