A headless horseman may well win this year’s Kentucky Derby

SingleDonald - thank you for tip on the Dosage Index. Makes sense.

I have a further comment to make. After reading the May issue of American Turf, I will declare that Dullahan has virtually no chance to win the Kentucky Derby. His Dosage Index is 4.20. Nearly all Kentucky Derby winners, since 1929, have had Dosage Indexes no greater than 4.00. The Dosage Index, for those who don't know, is a complex formula which takes into account 5 aspects of breeding. Spectacular Bid, the 1979 Kentucky Derby winner, just qualified, at 4.00. He would go on to lose the only 2 races he ran at a mile and a half, the Belmont Stakes (to Coastal), and the Jockey Cup Gold Cup (to Affirmed). Thus, at 4.00, his stamina was suspect. Right now, my 3 choices for the 2012 Kentucky Derby are: Union Rags, Creative Cause & Gemologist. They have Dosage Indexes of 2.14, 1.43, & 2.73, respectively. I will need more time to list those 3 in my favored order of finish, but I am keying on them.

My few bob will be on you Doolihan ,,,,Jerry Crawford walk him proudly to the winners circle ,,

Although Dullahan beat Hansen, in the Blue Grass Stakes, that race was won at Keeneland, which has a synthetic track. Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Derby, has a traditional dirt track. Dullahan has shown ability on synthetic surfaces, but is questionable on dirt tracks. We all remember Washington Irving's "The Legend of Sleepy Hollow". In that story, set in Colonial America, Ichabod Crane is chased out of town by the Headless Horseman. When Ichabod rides over a bridge, the Headless Horseman pulls up, refusing to cross over water. Could water also have been the bane of the Dullahan, besides gold?

Go Dullahan!

I think it would be great to see a Irish horse winning the Kentucky Derby. The best of luck to Dullahan (Headless Horseman) and his owner Jerry Crawford from Eamonn Jordan Kirby Co Clare.