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Home Page > News > Survey finds that it could take 43 years to occupy Ireland’s vacant houses

Survey finds that it could take 43 years to occupy Ireland’s vacant houses

Oversupply of housing and a stunted population growth means trouble

KERRY O'SHEA,

IrishCentral Staff Writer

Published Monday, June 11, 2012, 7:30 AM

Updated Monday, June 11, 2012, 7:30 AM

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"Ghost estate" a common view in Ireland as whole estates lie empty

Photo by Google Images

New figures released by Deutsche Bank show that it could take up to 43 years to fill the abundant empty properties around the economically struggling Ireland.

The Irish Independent reports that Deutsche Bank’s data shows that there are 289,451 empty houses in Ireland, including almost 60,000 vacant holiday homes. Those figures put Ireland’s vacancies at a whopping 15 percent, five times the amount of the UK.

Deutsche Bank noted that "Demand for housing is the key factor as to how long it will take for this oversupply to be reduced, and aside from demand for second homes the key driver should be population growth."

In 2011, population in Ireland grew by just 13,000. That, with the average number of residents per house, the Deutsche Bank estimates that it could take until 2055 for the glut of houses to be worked through.

The report compiled by Deutsche Bank indicates that if such a population growth is sustained, it will take 43 years for the unoccupied houses to be filled. That figure does not account for the unoccupied vacation homes, but when are those are factored in the estimated time to fill the houses jumps to 57 years.

"Barring a sudden and sizeable recovery in Irish net migration, or a politically controversial policy of demolishing large volumes of excess housing stock, housing oversupply will remain a feature for many years, possibly decades, to come," says Deutsche.

"This has ramifications for any bank with development loan exposure, and also for the mortgage market, where prices have continued to fall and oversupply makes any reverse of this trend unlikely in the near term.”

"Over 200,000 houses would need to be demolished in order for the housing supply to fall to three years of current population growth."

The new report by Deutsche Bank comes just after Nama announced that it will invest approximately €2bn to complete unfinished commercial and residential properties around the country.

In addition, Nama said that it would invest in creating some greenfield sites "in anticipation of future supply shortages in some market segments". This would create 25,000 jobs in the construction sector, according to Nama chairman Frank Daly.

In April 2010, Nama boss Brendan McDonagh told the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee that the state agency would consider bulldozing properties in certain circumstances, but that this would not be the "first option".

Nster.com

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bonjouryall | Jun 12, 2012, 10:49 PM EDT

The point about the poorly built homes is a valid one. Why would anyone buy a poorly built home if there are plenty of good ones available at an affordable price. Nevertheless, I'm always thought that Ireland and the eastern European countries should try to get some of the aging American baby boomers to spend all or part of their retirment years over there. Not everyone wants to live in Central America next to a drug cartel neighbor or put up with similar problems. Obviously, health care would be a big issue but if that could be worked out at a fair and reasonable cost, it would help occupy some of these homes and also reestablish a market demand for services so some Irish could return home. And the Americans cannot vote so there's no impact upon Irish identity or nationalism. America is changing so much in so many ways that I don't think it will be a very desirable place in coming years-in many places now. The idea of living in an attractive place, even if half a year, where people behave in a civilized fashion is very attractive to me, even if the living must be modest to be affordable. Several states here advertise the benefits of retirement living in their state. Why can't countries do it too?

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seanofeic | Jun 12, 2012, 02:27 AM EDT

Terrible Indictment of the over zoning and 110% Mortgage bank lending frenzy that left Ireland scarred with unwanted houses. So we are to bulldoze vacant housing and yet bankers are threatening families with repossessions because they cannot pay mortgages due to crippling austerity. Romantic Irelands dead and gone for sure.. The Deutchse Bank Report Map with the Irish Independent article is color coded in red. Areas with over 20% Vacancies are like a red rash on the most scenic areas of Ireland Donegal, Kerry, western seashore and the shannon area all over 20% vacancies.. Yet Councillors who zoned continue for the most part in their roles, Bankers .. well we all know how they got bailed out, and the developers got the safety net of NAMA and salaries up to 200K to soften their fall from grace, The County Managers, Director of services and Planners who signed off on ridicolous zoning are still protected by the croke park agreement with generous pay and benefits.. The taxpayer, of those that are left, of course will pick up the tab once again, Nobody responsible has been prosecuted or made suffer, once again the general public get shafted as all property pric one of the lucky ones. For those who paid carzy celtic tiger prices for properties many carbon foot prints from where they work, property prices will plummet further and stay low for decades, the number of people with unsustainable mortgages in Ireland is at least 1 in 7 who are 90 days late on mortgages. The Architects of this should be shamed in the pages of Irish history, they have buckled a nation at its knees because of greed. Done and dusted, Sadly, Bought and Sold.

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bunkerisland | Jun 11, 2012, 09:08 PM EDT

Well who is responsible for this excess in housing and holiday home development. It started over a decade ago with banks pushing out loans to speculators and developers with no government oversight. Holiday home villages are all over the country, 3/4 empty most of the time and offering two weeks for a one week rate and they still remain empty. I don't know if they are "shoddily built" but they have sort of a sterile atmosphere when grouped in packages of a dozen. Other homes built on speculation where just too grand in size and price for most to consider. No doubt Deutsche Bank was one of those speculating banks financing much of this madness.

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timbobdennehy | Jun 11, 2012, 07:40 PM EDT

they can just lease the property out,this report is mainly about selling those shoddily built houses,knock them all it would be cheaper in the long run.

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Bythebay | Jun 11, 2012, 12:42 PM EDT

There's also severe trouble in the US housing market with 18.6 million houses vacant, 1.25 million foreclosures, 16.3% short sales which mean the amount they're sold for is far less than the amount owed on them. It will take decaedes for the US housing market to return to solvency.

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