According to British academics, Ireland and the UK should brace themselves for severe winters for the coming years, as solar activity is low. Last winter, the coldest in over 45 years, gave Ireland a taste of what's to come.
A United Kingdom-based forecaster Exacta Weather has issued a severe winter weather warning for 2011 - 2012. James Madden, from Exacta, said they have been correct over the last two years. This year they predict record breaking snowfall and freezing temperatures once again.
Madden said that as well as the lower solar activity, the dust and ash particles released by the recent volcanic eruptions in Iceland and Chile would also contribute to cooling down of global temperatures. He said, “Converted sulfur dioxide emissions from volcanic eruptions can also cause sunlight reflection in the atmosphere. “
He said the 2011-2012 winter "will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills and raising awareness amongst the most vulnerable and elderly people of society."
Research published in the journal "Environmental Research Letters" shows that cold winters in the United Kingdom and Ireland are more common when the sun's activity is low.
The researchers have measured temperatures during the recent winters. Their findings show that it has been markedly cooler than the long term average temperature. They used the Central England Temperature (CET) record, which dates back to mid-17th century to examine their findings.
Co-author Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at the University of Reading, wrote about solar activity and its impact on the climate.
He wrote that, “Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650–1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity,” according to reports on Irish Weather Online.
_________________
Read more:
PHOTOS - Amazing photographs from Ireland’s ‘cold snap’ last winter
Ireland and global warming – electric cars, but colder winters
Icelandic volcano eruption threatens air travel again
_________________
The report states, "The mean CET for December, January and February for the recent relatively cold winters of 2008/09 and 2009/10 were 3.50C and 2.53C respectively. Whereas the mean value for the previous 20 winters had been 5.04C. The cluster of lower winter temperatures in the UK during the last three years had raised questions about the probability of more similar, or even colder, winters occurring in the future.”
These new findings on solar activity can be added to the research from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) which states that a missing jet stream and fading spots along with slower activity near the poles show that the Sun is entering a rest period.
Currently we are in sunspot cycle, Cylce 24, and the next sunspot, which will last 11 years, is Cycle 25.
The results were announced at the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society. Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said, “This is highly unusual and unexpected. But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.”
He said, “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”
18 Comments
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Switch to the desktop site to post a comment.Searlit | Jul 11, 2011, 07:32 PM EDT
That is great seagreen! Glad to know you are on the job. EphraimKibbey gives a very good description of what's happening, though it is very dire.
EphraimKibbey | Jul 10, 2011, 12:02 AM EDT
So, as I understand it, Global Warming predicts the melting of Greenland's land based glacier, increasing sea levels and dumping fresh water into the North Atlantic just where the cooler ocean temperatures and salinity normally cause surface water to sink, driving the Gulf stream. The resulting decrease in salinity will decrease the volume of sinking water in the North Atlantic and weaken the Gulf Stream which normally brings warmer water and its associated warmer weather to Ireland, the UK, Scandinavia and Western Europe. This will result in colder temperatures there. Now we learn that the Sun is going through a minimum in sunspot activity which means reduced radiation and colder temperatures reinforced by volcanic activity which is predicted to increase as we approach the plane of our galaxy and it's increased gravitational pull. While we recognise that all of these forces are in play, the question seems to be - will the latter be in time and of long enough duration to counter act Global Warming or will they all combine to imitate the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" and bring about another Little Ice Age? I'm guessing that between the economy, the politicians and the weather, we are all in for some more scary times. Now all we need is a pole reversal to really mess up civilization.
Springfield9 | Jul 08, 2011, 05:46 PM EDT
Let's get the bumper stickers out!!! SKI Roscommon!
seagreen | Jul 08, 2011, 10:02 AM EDT
Searlit, At the moment we ar sitting just below Cape Farewell, Greenland, on a survey. Will be out for another two weeks. Weather wise, only standing on our heads once a week or so.
mamaginnty | Jul 08, 2011, 09:39 AM EDT
Lucky I hung on to the auld fake fur coat, our winter here in Ireland was bad, being out in the country our water well froze, we have a couple of big tubs and had to swing the pick axe, 8 inchs of ice before we got the water. The odd tractor was the only motoring on country roads, but this survey has not mentioned what our summers will be like. Seagreen mentions the colder waters, but then why are more dolphin and whales traveling to our shores, other sealife have been spotted that are usually in warmer waters.
Bomar22 | Jul 07, 2011, 04:23 PM EDT
My, oh my, and all this talk about man made global warming must be just that TALK. Who would have thought that the sun and other natural phenomena, i.e. volcanoes and wild fires are the real causes of changes in weather patterns. Maybe now we can get back to a normal life and forget all of the restrictions governments have been trying to burden us with.
AngelPrecious | Jul 07, 2011, 04:07 PM EDT
Umm, we had a very cold winter in my location in the US. Our temps this summer have been around average! I live in Ohio. Global waming, huh?
traveler51 | Jul 07, 2011, 01:56 PM EDT
I think "seagreen" has the real answer. The waters off the northern Euro coasts are colder due to the melting Artic fresh water. Check out the above ave. temps in the US and other much larger countries.
Yardleypa | Jul 07, 2011, 12:38 PM EDT
Thats bad enough then in the summer it rains just twice a week once for 3 days and then for 4 days.
Searlit | Jul 07, 2011, 12:03 PM EDT
@ seagreen, how's the weather up North, I think you're past the 45th paralell. It's not as hot here in CT as it usually is this time of year. I think the low solar activity is a gift from God to give us more time to switch to renewable energy. Must be beautiful up in the mountains, now.
jdi2269 | Jul 07, 2011, 11:55 AM EDT
WHAT ABOUT AL GORE'S GLOBAL WARMING????
seagreen | Jul 07, 2011, 11:34 AM EDT
Its about fragmentation of the Gulf Stream by fresh water that is changing the salinity, and weakening the distribution of warmer water along the Irish, Scottish, and Norwegian coasts...
pounder | Jul 07, 2011, 11:32 AM EDT
It will be cold this coming winter in ireland and England,as usual.It's Winter folks.
pounder | Jul 07, 2011, 11:30 AM EDT
It will be cold in Ireland and England this winter.....as usual.It's winter folks.
cajuntom | Jul 07, 2011, 11:20 AM EDT
I think Al Gore and the rest of the NeoCons are going to pay you a visit. We could see a "big freeze" on Irish Central.
GJPinks | Jul 07, 2011, 10:31 AM EDT
Don't worry about those wooly mamoths outside. It's all a plot by the NeoCons in the US to convince you there is no global warming. AlGore doen't like The Irish and hates The Little People.
colkelley | Jul 07, 2011, 10:15 AM EDT
Al Gore is going to sue you for obstructing his phony money-making (for him) global warming. How DARE you report some as unimportant as the truth!
johhnyb | Jul 07, 2011, 09:55 AM EDT
Don't you get sick of this global warming.