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Future Catholic majority in the North changes everything in Ireland

Census figures will lead to dramatic changes both North and South

Irish Voice Editorial,

Published Friday, December 14, 2012, 7:29 AM

Updated Friday, December 14, 2012, 7:29 AM

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Catholics on their way to being the majority in Northern Ireland

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The just released Northern Ireland census figures from 2011 show a remarkable and inexorable trend towards a Catholic majority by the next census in 2021.

The state once proudly proclaimed a “Protestant state for a Protestant people” has instead a looming Catholic majority with all that entails.

Those of Protestant background are now at 48 percent, less than a majority for the first time in the history of the North. Those who say they are Catholic measure 45 percent, while the remainder professes no religion. There are only 54,000 more Protestants than Catholics.

Those numbers have seen a dramatic increase in the Catholic population from the 53 percent Protestant, 43 Catholic split in the 2001 census.

The gap has closed from 10 points to just three and will surely disappear over the next decade. The speed of the change in demographic terms is like lightning.

In institutions such as Queen’s University in Belfast and third level teacher training colleges Catholics are now in the large majority. That trend will continue as the birth rate is now significantly higher among Catholics than Protestants.

Statistics from the North’s Department of Education for 2010/’11 showed 120,415 Protestants and 163,693 Catholics in schools, equating to 57.6 percent Catholic and 42.4 percent Protestant pupils.

Considering that the state started out in 1921 with a 66 percent to 33 percent Protestant majority, it has been a stunning demographic shift in 90 years.

For the first time in history there is no longer a Protestant majority of over 50 percent in the North. The impact of that reality will be very significant on its political future.

It does not guarantee a united Ireland, but it does likely guarantee a Catholic majority in a decade with all that implies.

Given what has happened in Scotland, with a referendum on independence to take place shortly, the old underpinnings of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland are suddenly shaken to the core.

Due to the shared power reality of Northern Ireland, many Catholics will believe they are better off in their own Northern Ireland than being part of the Irish Republic where in current political terms they would be a minority.

If as seems certain, the Catholic vote is larger than the Protestant vote in the North that will mean a Sinn Fein first minister in the North in the not to distant future.

Given that reality, the Catholic voter has two scenarios to consider -- leadership in the North or part of a united Ireland.

The outlook among Catholics in the North on the Irish Republic may depend on large part on whether Sinn Fein builds on its recent progress in the south and becomes a party of government there over the next decade or so. That is an imponderable at this point.

The census result is certainly a long way from the harsh reality of the 50 years of the Northern state and utter Unionist domination when only one token Catholic was ever in a cabinet position.

For Protestant political leaders, the reality is that they have to reach out to Catholics to retain their hold on power and membership of the union. This was a point made by current First Minister Peter Robinson at his party’s annual conference a few weeks back.

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56 Comments

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IrelandNorth | Dec 19, 2012, 07:47 AM EST

darragh S! Yes, I do believe the material argument is key, of which competing nationalities are probably only pecadillos. I doubt if a union jack would taste any better than a tricolour to a rumbling stomach, even if sauted in cranberry sauce. Perhaps Belfast City Hall might fly the Jolly Roger (skull & crossbones of piracy), not out of disrespect of local government, but just to emphasise the material argument. Otherwise, the EU flag with either STG£ or € sign centrepiece. Alas, domination of any kind is retrograde. With RC being rapidly replaced by PC in the 26, we're all catholics with a small/lower case 'c' - ie universal!

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seanomelb | Dec 18, 2012, 06:48 PM EST

Some unionist did attend the 1919 parliament and some do consider a united Ireland unfortunatley they are few and far between.Carson on his death bed regretted the partition of Ireland.Geraoid4 tells it as it is in a practical way.

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Kilsally | Dec 18, 2012, 08:22 AM EST

Gearoid - there have been several prominent Unionists and indeed Loyalist paramilitaries that have courted the Northern Ireland independence idea over the last century so I think you are wrong. Indeed I ticked both British and Northern Irish depending on the question in the census

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darragh S | Dec 17, 2012, 10:53 PM EST

@IrelandNorth Yes your right but even the British Analysts seem to aggree that the Catholic Birthrate is going to trigger off the Good Friday aggreement referendum when Catholics become the majority. They also note that its probably economically better to stay part of the Union. They have the same problem in England and this is why Gordon Brown pushed so hard for allowing the Monarch to marry a Catholic, brown nosing the Catholics. However I did some growth rate to current population crunching and figure that the 50% 1 Catholic Majority wont be for at least 23 years. I think your correct however in that if you look at the way some communities with higher Catholic head counts vote in Unionists at a disproportionate rate it makes no sense other than to suggest that NI is becoming its own little Nation rather than preparing to face the inevitablity of being a Catholic dominated state that rejoins the republic of Ireland. However this is in my opinion just economic. The republic of Ireland would be much better off with the NI economy regardless of what they say about welfare for poor people. For such a small population to have such a big economy is just not right from my Irish perspective. Why should the UK be allowed to have that when in all fairness the Bulk of the people that Live in Ireland, the Irish would prefer it be theres not the UK's.

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seanomelb | Dec 17, 2012, 05:53 PM EST

barneyjoe you have to seperate the apples from the oranges.Your comparison is frail considering the statlet was set up by an act of parliamnet and not by plebicite. In fact the majority of Irish people voted for self determination(1918) Ciara has a fixation on people who dare to have a point of view in opposition to hers(she's not very bright).

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ancavker | Dec 17, 2012, 12:15 PM EST

ciara: Why do you always bring the Americans into it. Is it because Irish-AMerica was the only one who cared about the north during the troubles, while the various Irish governments and the Irish people in the south for most part turned a blind eye to it all? But of course the experts on the Middle East, and Central Ame America. We are all Northern Irish now!!!!

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IrelandNorth | Dec 17, 2012, 07:19 AM EST

Religion and nationality are not necessarily coterminous. High Church Anglicans are Catholics too - ya know! They're just not ROMAN Catholics (RCs). An increase in Catholicism (sic) could mean an increase in Anglicanism as well as Romanism. Even if most RCs are Irish nationalist-democratic unionist/republican, not all of them are RC. And even if most Protestants (including Catholic ones) are British nationalist/imperial unionist/loyalists, not all of them are. There are exception to the abnorm. There are such things as Catholics (AC&RC) who are British nationalist/imperial unionist/loyalists. Just as there are Protestants (including Catholic ones!) who are Irish nationalist/democratic unionist/republican - just like me! The 'Northern' (sic) Ireland Household Survey, 2011 reported 40% British only - 25% Irish only - and 21% 'Northern' (sic) Irish only. Ergo - elementary arithmetic indicates a 6% majority in favour of either reunification and/or secession on the eve of the 9th year countdown to the centenary of partition?

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darragh S | Dec 17, 2012, 04:05 AM EST

@Thomas84. Given the numbers now in the Border regions I would be tempted if I was part of Sine Fein or SDLP to force a referendum for secession of those regions into the Republic of Ireland and fight for it if needs be. With Scotland leaving the UK, with the War in Afghanistan and the whole Crisis in the European Union I cant think of a better time to do it. There is a great consensus for it despite the Clinton Prodestant Doped Good Friday agreement that does not recognize the Irish Constitutions clause for an Independent Ireland. It would effectively reduce the British foothold in Ireland from 1/6th to 1/12th. And the Irish Americans are all welcome to join in. Next year Major American Airlines are actually putting on an extra 280000 extra flights to Ireland aswell so no time like the present lads. Erin Go Bragh.

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darragh S | Dec 17, 2012, 03:58 AM EST

@Thomas84 "As for whether the unionists would like to turn the feild red with blood... If Northern Ireland vote democratically to reform a nation of Ireland then that is what will happen and I suspect the number of people ready to violently oppose such a thing would be extremely minimal especially if they didnt have the support of the British state." Look mate were all to aware of what Britain would do, we do not have to trust them and we sure as hell know who's side they would be on. Its very difficult to know however how much support they will receive and who will support the Republic of Ireland. Prodestants would never accept a majority of Catholics they would renig and use some rule from the 1700's by some stupid king or something like that that gives them dominion over everyone and NI would be stuck in the UK against the wishes of the majority, kind of like Egypt. The IRB in the early 1900's reminds me very much of the Muslim Brotherhood now in Egypt.

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Gearoid4 | Dec 16, 2012, 04:44 PM EST

@Kilsally, It does not follow that those who chose the term "northern" Irish, did so because the option "British" was missing from the last survey. It is more than likely that they see no future kudos to be had from using that description and have decidedly opted for a more local identification instead. I agree that consent between all parties in the northern jurisdiction is required before any constitutional changes can be enacted. All the nationalist parties recognize this and there is no mystery in it. As for your comments on the Irish language, it is a revelation that some 150,000 has some knowledge of it, as revealed in the 2001 census, despite decades of hostility towards it from the old unionist regime at Stormont. In fact, the Irish language sector is showing the most resilience and growth out of all the competing educational interests in the north of Ireland. It will continue to thrive and survive as the only real, indigenous language from which practically all the place-names of towns, village, townlands and mountains etc are derived from in Ulster. @Ciaradexy, 40% of the respondents described themselves as British and this does not constitute a mathematical majority, while those who see themselves either as Irish or n. Irish are nearly 50%. A good bit of work is required to promote the sense of Irishness among nationalists who feel disconnected from it and as a viable alternative to unionists of a moderate mindset. But this is not an unattainable object and with some imaginative thinking it can work.

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Kilsally | Dec 16, 2012, 01:09 PM EST

Wounded George the census had Irish language in 4th place behind English, Polish & Lithuanian in Northern Ireland with 0.28% using Irish as their first language (11% had some knowledge of Irish & 8% some knowledge of Ulster-Scots)

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ciaradexy | Dec 16, 2012, 12:04 PM EST

So the majority in NI regard themselves as British and only 21% as Irish? Hopefully the Americans on here will absorb this info into your 'brains' and leave this issue alone. It doesnt affect any of you. Wounded George, the majority of Irish people DO NOT want Irish to be introduced as the primary language here, now move along.

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Thomas84 | Dec 16, 2012, 10:03 AM EST

Darragh , sorry man i was just poking fun. Scotland doesnt need the headache of dealing with all the crazy people of the north. As for whether the unionists would like to turn the feild red with blood, all we can do is continue along the path of democracy and civilisation. If the majority of Northern Ireland vote democratically to form a new nation of the two parts of Ireland then that is what will happen and I suspect the number of people ready to violently oppose such a thing would be extremely minimal especially if they didnt have the support of the British state.

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barneyjo | Dec 16, 2012, 09:16 AM EST

@seanomelb - Majority Rule didnt work within the State of Northern Ireland because a sizeable minority did not WANT or WISH to be ruled by that majority. So why would it be any different on an all Ireland basis?? And again, who will enforce it?

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barneyjo | Dec 16, 2012, 09:11 AM EST

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