The just released Northern Ireland census figures from 2011 show a remarkable and inexorable trend towards a Catholic majority by the next census in 2021.
The state once proudly proclaimed a “Protestant state for a Protestant people” has instead a looming Catholic majority with all that entails.
Those of Protestant background are now at 48 percent, less than a majority for the first time in the history of the North. Those who say they are Catholic measure 45 percent, while the remainder professes no religion. There are only 54,000 more Protestants than Catholics.
Those numbers have seen a dramatic increase in the Catholic population from the 53 percent Protestant, 43 Catholic split in the 2001 census.
The gap has closed from 10 points to just three and will surely disappear over the next decade. The speed of the change in demographic terms is like lightning.
In institutions such as Queen’s University in Belfast and third level teacher training colleges Catholics are now in the large majority. That trend will continue as the birth rate is now significantly higher among Catholics than Protestants.
Statistics from the North’s Department of Education for 2010/’11 showed 120,415 Protestants and 163,693 Catholics in schools, equating to 57.6 percent Catholic and 42.4 percent Protestant pupils.
Considering that the state started out in 1921 with a 66 percent to 33 percent Protestant majority, it has been a stunning demographic shift in 90 years.
For the first time in history there is no longer a Protestant majority of over 50 percent in the North. The impact of that reality will be very significant on its political future.
It does not guarantee a united Ireland, but it does likely guarantee a Catholic majority in a decade with all that implies.
Given what has happened in Scotland, with a referendum on independence to take place shortly, the old underpinnings of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland are suddenly shaken to the core.
Due to the shared power reality of Northern Ireland, many Catholics will believe they are better off in their own Northern Ireland than being part of the Irish Republic where in current political terms they would be a minority.
If as seems certain, the Catholic vote is larger than the Protestant vote in the North that will mean a Sinn Fein first minister in the North in the not to distant future.
Given that reality, the Catholic voter has two scenarios to consider -- leadership in the North or part of a united Ireland.
The outlook among Catholics in the North on the Irish Republic may depend on large part on whether Sinn Fein builds on its recent progress in the south and becomes a party of government there over the next decade or so. That is an imponderable at this point.
The census result is certainly a long way from the harsh reality of the 50 years of the Northern state and utter Unionist domination when only one token Catholic was ever in a cabinet position.
For Protestant political leaders, the reality is that they have to reach out to Catholics to retain their hold on power and membership of the union. This was a point made by current First Minister Peter Robinson at his party’s annual conference a few weeks back.
It may be too late to do that effectively, but Robinson’s statement at least reveals that real politics not just fashioned on old tribal hatreds may be about to take place in Northern Ireland.
That would be a welcome moment for everyone.
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Switch to the desktop site to post a comment.IrelandNorth | Dec 19, 2012, 07:47 AM EST
darragh S! Yes, I do believe the material argument is key, of which competing nationalities are probably only pecadillos. I doubt if a union jack would taste any better than a tricolour to a rumbling stomach, even if sauted in cranberry sauce. Perhaps Belfast City Hall might fly the Jolly Roger (skull & crossbones of piracy), not out of disrespect of local government, but just to emphasise the material argument. Otherwise, the EU flag with either STG£ or € sign centrepiece. Alas, domination of any kind is retrograde. With RC being rapidly replaced by PC in the 26, we're all catholics with a small/lower case 'c' - ie universal!
seanomelb | Dec 18, 2012, 06:48 PM EST
Some unionist did attend the 1919 parliament and some do consider a united Ireland unfortunatley they are few and far between.Carson on his death bed regretted the partition of Ireland.Geraoid4 tells it as it is in a practical way.
Kilsally | Dec 18, 2012, 08:22 AM EST
Gearoid - there have been several prominent Unionists and indeed Loyalist paramilitaries that have courted the Northern Ireland independence idea over the last century so I think you are wrong. Indeed I ticked both British and Northern Irish depending on the question in the census
darragh S | Dec 17, 2012, 10:53 PM EST
@IrelandNorth Yes your right but even the British Analysts seem to aggree that the Catholic Birthrate is going to trigger off the Good Friday aggreement referendum when Catholics become the majority. They also note that its probably economically better to stay part of the Union. They have the same problem in England and this is why Gordon Brown pushed so hard for allowing the Monarch to marry a Catholic, brown nosing the Catholics. However I did some growth rate to current population crunching and figure that the 50% 1 Catholic Majority wont be for at least 23 years. I think your correct however in that if you look at the way some communities with higher Catholic head counts vote in Unionists at a disproportionate rate it makes no sense other than to suggest that NI is becoming its own little Nation rather than preparing to face the inevitablity of being a Catholic dominated state that rejoins the republic of Ireland. However this is in my opinion just economic. The republic of Ireland would be much better off with the NI economy regardless of what they say about welfare for poor people. For such a small population to have such a big economy is just not right from my Irish perspective. Why should the UK be allowed to have that when in all fairness the Bulk of the people that Live in Ireland, the Irish would prefer it be theres not the UK's.
seanomelb | Dec 17, 2012, 05:53 PM EST
barneyjoe you have to seperate the apples from the oranges.Your comparison is frail considering the statlet was set up by an act of parliamnet and not by plebicite. In fact the majority of Irish people voted for self determination(1918) Ciara has a fixation on people who dare to have a point of view in opposition to hers(she's not very bright).
ancavker | Dec 17, 2012, 12:15 PM EST
ciara: Why do you always bring the Americans into it. Is it because Irish-AMerica was the only one who cared about the north during the troubles, while the various Irish governments and the Irish people in the south for most part turned a blind eye to it all? But of course the experts on the Middle East, and Central Ame America. We are all Northern Irish now!!!!
IrelandNorth | Dec 17, 2012, 07:19 AM EST
Religion and nationality are not necessarily coterminous. High Church Anglicans are Catholics too - ya know! They're just not ROMAN Catholics (RCs). An increase in Catholicism (sic) could mean an increase in Anglicanism as well as Romanism. Even if most RCs are Irish nationalist-democratic unionist/republican, not all of them are RC. And even if most Protestants (including Catholic ones) are British nationalist/imperial unionist/loyalists, not all of them are. There are exception to the abnorm. There are such things as Catholics (AC&RC) who are British nationalist/imperial unionist/loyalists. Just as there are Protestants (including Catholic ones!) who are Irish nationalist/democratic unionist/republican - just like me! The 'Northern' (sic) Ireland Household Survey, 2011 reported 40% British only - 25% Irish only - and 21% 'Northern' (sic) Irish only. Ergo - elementary arithmetic indicates a 6% majority in favour of either reunification and/or secession on the eve of the 9th year countdown to the centenary of partition?
darragh S | Dec 17, 2012, 04:05 AM EST
@Thomas84. Given the numbers now in the Border regions I would be tempted if I was part of Sine Fein or SDLP to force a referendum for secession of those regions into the Republic of Ireland and fight for it if needs be. With Scotland leaving the UK, with the War in Afghanistan and the whole Crisis in the European Union I cant think of a better time to do it. There is a great consensus for it despite the Clinton Prodestant Doped Good Friday agreement that does not recognize the Irish Constitutions clause for an Independent Ireland. It would effectively reduce the British foothold in Ireland from 1/6th to 1/12th. And the Irish Americans are all welcome to join in. Next year Major American Airlines are actually putting on an extra 280000 extra flights to Ireland aswell so no time like the present lads. Erin Go Bragh.
darragh S | Dec 17, 2012, 03:58 AM EST
@Thomas84 "As for whether the unionists would like to turn the feild red with blood... If Northern Ireland vote democratically to reform a nation of Ireland then that is what will happen and I suspect the number of people ready to violently oppose such a thing would be extremely minimal especially if they didnt have the support of the British state." Look mate were all to aware of what Britain would do, we do not have to trust them and we sure as hell know who's side they would be on. Its very difficult to know however how much support they will receive and who will support the Republic of Ireland. Prodestants would never accept a majority of Catholics they would renig and use some rule from the 1700's by some stupid king or something like that that gives them dominion over everyone and NI would be stuck in the UK against the wishes of the majority, kind of like Egypt. The IRB in the early 1900's reminds me very much of the Muslim Brotherhood now in Egypt.
Gearoid4 | Dec 16, 2012, 04:44 PM EST
@Kilsally, It does not follow that those who chose the term "northern" Irish, did so because the option "British" was missing from the last survey. It is more than likely that they see no future kudos to be had from using that description and have decidedly opted for a more local identification instead. I agree that consent between all parties in the northern jurisdiction is required before any constitutional changes can be enacted. All the nationalist parties recognize this and there is no mystery in it. As for your comments on the Irish language, it is a revelation that some 150,000 has some knowledge of it, as revealed in the 2001 census, despite decades of hostility towards it from the old unionist regime at Stormont. In fact, the Irish language sector is showing the most resilience and growth out of all the competing educational interests in the north of Ireland. It will continue to thrive and survive as the only real, indigenous language from which practically all the place-names of towns, village, townlands and mountains etc are derived from in Ulster. @Ciaradexy, 40% of the respondents described themselves as British and this does not constitute a mathematical majority, while those who see themselves either as Irish or n. Irish are nearly 50%. A good bit of work is required to promote the sense of Irishness among nationalists who feel disconnected from it and as a viable alternative to unionists of a moderate mindset. But this is not an unattainable object and with some imaginative thinking it can work.
Kilsally | Dec 16, 2012, 01:09 PM EST
Wounded George the census had Irish language in 4th place behind English, Polish & Lithuanian in Northern Ireland with 0.28% using Irish as their first language (11% had some knowledge of Irish & 8% some knowledge of Ulster-Scots)
ciaradexy | Dec 16, 2012, 12:04 PM EST
So the majority in NI regard themselves as British and only 21% as Irish? Hopefully the Americans on here will absorb this info into your 'brains' and leave this issue alone. It doesnt affect any of you. Wounded George, the majority of Irish people DO NOT want Irish to be introduced as the primary language here, now move along.
Thomas84 | Dec 16, 2012, 10:03 AM EST
Darragh , sorry man i was just poking fun. Scotland doesnt need the headache of dealing with all the crazy people of the north. As for whether the unionists would like to turn the feild red with blood, all we can do is continue along the path of democracy and civilisation. If the majority of Northern Ireland vote democratically to form a new nation of the two parts of Ireland then that is what will happen and I suspect the number of people ready to violently oppose such a thing would be extremely minimal especially if they didnt have the support of the British state.
barneyjo | Dec 16, 2012, 09:16 AM EST
@seanomelb - Majority Rule didnt work within the State of Northern Ireland because a sizeable minority did not WANT or WISH to be ruled by that majority. So why would it be any different on an all Ireland basis?? And again, who will enforce it?
barneyjo | Dec 16, 2012, 09:11 AM EST
@seanomelb - Majority Rule didnt work within the State of Northern Ireland because a sizeable minority did not WANT or WISH to be ruled by that majority. So why would it be any different on an all Ireland basis??
Kilsally | Dec 16, 2012, 08:38 AM EST
Geraldo, Northern Irish wasn' an option on the last census so that would imply that mostwho choose that option chose British when it wasn't available. Also SDLP & southern Parishave implied that the devolved Northern Ireland Assembly would remain in the event of a Nationalist majority. The solution to Northern Ireland has always been in Belfast not Dublin or London
darragh S | Dec 15, 2012, 11:32 PM EST
lol so when you voting its not influenced by how little tax you might have to pay or what ever else the politician is offering you. From The Nightmare Scenario: A U.S.-China War: Part V "One of the more poignant moments in the epic film Gladiator takes place during the opening battle between Roman legions and German tribesmen. The Roman general Maximus and his lieutenant, Quintus, are debating whether their outmatched foe will fight or submit. Quintus opines that “People should know when they are conquered,” whereupon Maximus replies: “Would you, Quintus? Would I?” That’s a Hollywood restatement of Clausewitz’s proverb that “even the ultimate outcome of a war is not always to be regarded as final. The defeated state often considers the outcome merely as a transitory evil, for which a remedy may still be found in political conditions at some later date.”"
seanomelb | Dec 15, 2012, 11:00 PM EST
What buy in the majority rules no bribes no bull sh#t
darragh S | Dec 15, 2012, 10:45 PM EST
You know something, its fricken amazing how Gold will influence China and India in the UN and how Oil will Influence the UK and the USA and maybe Europe. Amazing. The unionists havent a leg to stand on but are desperately trying to counter these new resource influences on Major Political Pullers like Obamma and Cameron. What next, a Diamond Mine and Nuclear Powerplants, right then they would get everything else for free which is something the republic should be worried about given its weak Military Position. Looks like anything could happen.
darragh S | Dec 15, 2012, 10:35 PM EST
Wont they have a referendum when the time comes. I think in all the areas north and east of the border where the Catholic Majorities are will see a decline in Prods who will slowly migrate away towards Antrim or die out. Catholics in the south will continue to do buisness with the Yanks, Germans and other wealthy EU countries, continue to mine 300g per tonne gold deposits and drill Trillion Barrel Oil deposits of Dublin and Cork. So growth is set to begin again in Ireland despite the Austerity which seems like a joke now that I hear about the new resources boom heading the republics way. Sinn Fein and the SDLP have strong holds in those Border Regions will probably benefit from these coming times given the way the Irish have upgraded the land transport networks from the North to the South. I predict a considerable amount of investment by Catholics on land in the North in the Future and there may be little the Unionists can do about that. Its not entirley off the cards to suggest that in the next 30 to 40 years over a few more generations that at some point those Sinn Fein and SDLP groups will probably push out the Unionists and then seek to Annex the areas they are in control off and Join up with the Republic of Ireland. There of course will be a major fight over that and the UK will probably abandon its Democracy position and try to back the Unionists. It will be up to the Republic of Ireland to secure support from the US and Europe like Kosovo did to prevent the UK from modelling in the free and natural progression of Democracy. It would be nice for the Republic of Ireland to push all the way to take all the way across to the Southern Belfast line and reduce the UK's stronghold position there.
barneyjo | Dec 15, 2012, 09:59 PM EST
@seanomelb - Question still stands. Where is the "buy - in for Unionism going to come from??
seanomelb | Dec 15, 2012, 06:37 PM EST
barneyjoe write about "frogmarching unionists into a united ireland" that sounds a little rich when 1/2 a million nationalists were frogmarched into british control (1922). It seems a little rich considering unionist existed in a one Ireland state controlled by Britain prior to that date(and thrived) It appears that some posters turnn their back on the democratic process when they do not like the outcomes,afterall majority rules.
Gearoid4 | Dec 15, 2012, 02:53 PM EST
@Kilsally, 40% is a stage in a downward trend concerning those who declare themselves British within the jurisdiction of "northern" Ireland. In previous polls the average would have been around 60%. You mention those who declare themselves as "northern" Irish and Irish as being neck and neck. In total they amount to nearly 50%. At least the descriptive term "northern" Irish contains within itself some degree of recognition of being Irish. Future events hopefully will allow the notion of being Irish to be more encompassing within the northern Jurisdiction and lead to the unity of the Irish nation.
Kilsally | Dec 15, 2012, 02:31 PM EST
Some clarification needed to your article. The Catholic population only increased by 1% in a decade so a majority is nowhere near by 2021, secondly Protestant decline from 53 to 48 is accounted for largely by the increase in atheists/agnostics. Add to that nearly 50% said they were British, and Northern Irish & Irish were neck and neck at around a quarter do a United Ireland seems no where near
curtisjohnson | Dec 15, 2012, 11:00 AM EST
swillhamilton - "No matter who you were in NI you'd have to be devoid of a functioning brain to want to be ruled by the stew of potatoes playing a government that we have in the South. Orange rule may be bad but it's at least fading. Rome Rule accommodated by a gang of native gombeen men is a disaster that's been stumbling along since 1922." Actually, compared to other post colonial nations the tiny ROI has been a massive success (even considering the recent downturn) given its belligerent security council neighbor controlling the supremacist state to its north. Compare the political stability and economy of Ireland to post-colonial states with much more in the way of natural resources, size, and population. The primary problem is the continuation of the poisonous influence of anglo-materialism through the anglo oriented Dublin establishment (not to mention supremacist anglo squatters such as swill hamilton). Incidentally, your fellow squatters appearing to be abandoning the anglican "Church" for the Catholic Church.
Mgvsmith | Dec 15, 2012, 10:35 AM EST
There is an interesting range of views here. In response to some, I would say that a bare Catholic majority in Northern Ireland will not immediately lead to a United Ireland. The concept of a Northern Irish identity is a growing one. I think it reflects two things. Firstly, there is a growing feeling that the people who live in Northern Ireland have a different cultural space from both the rest of the UK and the Rep of Ireland. Secondly, it's also probably true to say that there is a congruence of British Isles culture and the cultural differences between Ireland and the UK are much less tan they once where. The urgency of the onset of United Ireland is much reduced and it will not be a priority for the soon to be majority Catholic population in Northern Ireland for many decades, if ever. The Good Friday Agreement settled Northern Ireland's position within the UK for the foreseeable future.
Gearoid4 | Dec 15, 2012, 09:48 AM EST
That is a very good and practical question that you pose, Barneyjo and is deserving of a thoughtful and thorough response. One cannot of course force a political settlement on a people who constitute at least 15% of the total population of the whole of Ireland. This would be a recipe for disaster and would bring an unparalleled level of death and ruin in it's wake. During the 1980's,the representatives(except for Sinn Fein who were treated then as personae non gratae due to The Troubles)of Irish nationalism on the Island of Ireland setup a round table meeting in the form of the New Ireland Forum to thrash out this question. They all agreed to unity by consent and not by coercion and this approach was largely driven by John Hume, the then leader of the SDLP. This led ultimately to the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. The unionists of course can reject any overture from Irish nationalists as it is their God-given right to do so, but I think that events in the near future will impose upon them the necessity to think seriously about their relationships with the rest of the people on the Island of Ireland. At the moment they seem to be ill-prepared for the storms to come as such realities as the outcome to the referendum for Scottish Independence will surely bring. The current display of British hyper-nationalism betrays a people of deep insecurity and even a mass psychosis among some elements of unionism. They seem to be poorly led and have been crassly manipulated by their political leadership. Irish nationalists in the north continue to hold out the hand of friendship to their unionist neighbors, and seek to build a consensus without the political structures up there. At the moment, they are being severely tested but wise heads should prevail. Consensus politics are the way forward despite the usual tribal shennigans of unionist politicians.
Gearoid4 | Dec 15, 2012, 09:46 AM EST
That is a very good and practical question that you pose, Barneyjo and is deserving of a thoughtful and thorough response. One cannot of course force a political settlement on a people who constitute at least 15% of the total population of the whole of Ireland. This would be a recipe for disaster and would bring an unparalleled level of death and ruin in it's wake. During the 1980's,the representatives(except for Sinn Fein who were treated then as personae non gratae due to The Troubles)of Irish nationalism on the Island of Ireland setup a round table meeting in the form of the New Ireland Forum to thrash this question. They all agreed to unity by consent and not by coercion and this approach was largely driven by John Hume, the then leader of the SDLP. This led ultimately to the Good Friday Agreement of 1995. The unionists of course can reject any overture from Irish nationalists as it is their God-given right to do so, but I think that events in the near future will impose upon them the necessity to think seriously about their relationships with the rest of the people on the Island of Ireland. At the moment they seem to be ill-prepared for the storms to come as such realities as the outcome to the referendum for Scottish Independence will surely bring. The current display of British hyper-nationalism betrays a people of deep insecurity and even a mass psychosis among some elements of unionism. They seem to be poorly led and have been crassly manipulated by their political leadership. Irish nationalists in the north continue to hold out the hand of friendship to their unionist neighbors, and seek to build a consensus without the political structures up there. At the moment, they are being severely tested but wise heads should prevail. Consensus politics are the way forward despite the usual tribal shennigans of unionist politicians.
CitizenWhy | Dec 15, 2012, 09:10 AM EST
A Catholic (by background) majority in NI was inevitable. But this does not mean that a majority of Catholics would vote for separation from Britain. That might happen if the UK conservatives manage to truly wreck the British welfare state but not otherwise. The NI tax base could not possibly match the subsidy from London.
barneyjo | Dec 15, 2012, 08:04 AM EST
As a Catholic & Nationalist LIVING in Northern Ireland, I have yet to see any posts that answers perhaps THE most significant question in relation to an emerging Catholic majority in Northern Ireland. And it is this;"By what means will anyone frogmarch upwards of 750,000 Unionists/ Loyalists into a new political dispensation that is built on a 32 County Sovereign State Model? Who is going to enforce this on the voters who do not agree? The Irish Army, the Garda?? maybe with the assistance of the British Military, or even why not request the assistance of US Military Forces? I jest of course, but the question remains unanswered; how do you reclaim the "Fourth Green Field" without turning it "BLOOD RED"??
barneyjo | Dec 15, 2012, 08:02 AM EST
As a Catholic & Nationalist LIVING in Northern Ireland, I have yet to see any posts that answers perhaps THE most significant question in relation to an emerging Catholic majority in Northern Ireland. And it is this;"By what means will anyone frogmarch upwards of 750,000 Unionists/ Loyalists into a new political dispensation that is built on a 32 County Sovereign State Model? Who is going to enforce this on the voters who do not agree? The Irish Army, the Garda?? maybe with the assistance of the British Military, or even why not request the assistance of Military Forces? I jest of course, but the question remains unanswered; how do you reclaim the "Fourth Green Field" without turning it "BLOOD RED"??
darragh S | Dec 15, 2012, 03:31 AM EST
That made no sense.
darragh S | Dec 15, 2012, 03:29 AM EST
Well Thomas this is something someone else told me, and yes I thought it was a bit funny myself. I just added in the demographics. So no not sure many would flock to my performance. I think the words used infact by that lad ie 'Scotland will be independent and if NI wants to come with us then they can'. I am not sure its alltogether that simple. What about those Fighting Irish, the 69th Infantry, I think they would have a few tales about secession and civil wars if you know what I mean. But I am sure the Prods have a great relationship with each other between stormount and glasgow, or atleast this is what I am led to believe by the fact that the Scots are sick and tired of fighting wars in the British Army. I don't blame them, I saw the vehicles they sent the Pathfinder regiments from wales to Afghanistan in. How any of them actually survived is a wonder in itself. Then again its not like the Taliban are fielding Javelins is it. Erin Go Bragh
anglo-norman | Dec 14, 2012, 11:01 PM EST
Pat Finucane was murdered by higher ups for sure but can it be proved? The likes of Gerry Adams calling for truth is what I mean by 'will ireland ever grow up" everything is rotten in Irish Politics yet the Irish people put up with it everytime.
Thomas84 | Dec 14, 2012, 08:59 PM EST
Hahahahahah oh darragh, that was the best joke ive heard all day. The scots would carry on in Northern Ireland .... man you should be on a stage.
darragh S | Dec 14, 2012, 06:57 PM EST
Further more I fear that those who think Scotlands independence might mean the same for Northern Ireland think again. The word is that Scotland is likely to fix its eyes on mid ulster and east london derry if it manages to persuade antrims, stangford and lagans to join them. Did you even know this was an option! Afraid so.
darragh S | Dec 14, 2012, 06:52 PM EST
After looking at the election results for 2011 it looks like all the constituencies bordering the republic of Ireland, being South Down, Newry Armagh, Mid Ulster, Fermanagh, Tyrone's, London Derry and Foyle are predominantly orange opposed. With the exception of West Belfast Northern Ireland could be divided into East and West and the South East of Northern Ireland could be divided into North and South. So unless the populations your talking about increase in the latter areas those areas will remain Anglo Centric while the other areas will remain Erin Centric.
misneac | Dec 14, 2012, 05:52 PM EST
That Katie Murphy sure needs counselling as well as education!. ! She makes allegations of rape against Priests .No other religion would tolerate such gross insults ,the same claptrap that in society the only abusers were Catholic Priests .What planet is she living on ? There is more abuse across the spectrum of society ,pop stars ,estate agents ,teachers ,police etc.etc . So park your stupid bigotry !!!!
pilib04 | Dec 14, 2012, 05:51 PM EST
Northern Ireland has been held up by the British Army and the pro_british Death squads. It is time for David Cameron to set the date for a vote on Irish reunification.
seanomelb | Dec 14, 2012, 04:53 PM EST
Wiollie hamilton the bigot,torytory the digruntled anti Irish ranter. His rantings below deserve to be assigned to the paper bin of ignorance and spite. Ancaver has it right. The last poll taken on a united Ireland was over 40% Torytory must be conducting his own polls in the orange lodge or at a twelfth night bonfire.Wee willy whose forebearers grovelled to the king of England and said sorry is bitter and twisted. I think he has a secret pride in the resilience of the Irish to keep the flame of freedom burning
Gearoid4 | Dec 14, 2012, 04:50 PM EST
A totally unnecessary and irrelevant contribution from KatieMurphy to the current debate with her crassly stupid and sensationalist comments on the Catholic influence in the Republic of Ireland. They do not progress the arguments in any meaningful sense. Well said Ancavker, you have hit the nail on the head with your wise observations concerning the present and future social, cultural and political developments in Ireland.
Johnnyclash | Dec 14, 2012, 04:35 PM EST
Post cease fire election slogan. " make love not war " guess who.?
ToryTory | Dec 14, 2012, 04:17 PM EST
Ancavker: a desultory piece of blathering.
ToryTory | Dec 14, 2012, 04:15 PM EST
Shut up WondedKnee and stop jabbering.
KatieMurphy | Dec 14, 2012, 03:44 PM EST
God save the children of NI from the sex starved priests in who in the south at least raped children left and right. Its possible this article is a responsse by the Faux news spinmaster hired by the Pope , who if you dig into the web was involved in hiding the endless molestation of children by its sex starved unnaturally forced to celibacy priests ............ In America the second largest religion is EX catholics and thats from eg both Irish central in the past and NCR online...........As a meausre of the lack of respect in Ireland for the monster of Rome, 73% of the people there support changing the consittuion to allow3 gay people to marry..................I'm reminded of a childhood story about how lies beget more lies beget more lies ad infinitum.....Beware of the spinmasters of the Vat in Rome.
ancavker | Dec 14, 2012, 02:51 PM EST
Tory/Tory: The fact remains that the Ctholics will be the majority, and they will ultimately determine the future of northern Ireland. This northern Irish identity is a myth, and by the way it says northern Irish,and so the Irish dimension is definitely there. It is not like they identify as western British. And from the Catholic/Nationalist perspective I can tell you that perhaps it is a pride in themselves as a people. They who withstood 80 years of sectariainism in a fascist police state, followed by violence when demonstrating for basic civil rights, followed by more violence and death and destruction from The British Army, the Provo's and all the loyalist militants. And yet they stood through it all whil abandoned by their own people in the south, and the Irish government. And we who come from the border areas stood with them as we too suffered from the madness. So we too are Northern Irish now. They are our people and no border in the worls will change that. A far as home nations and all that silliness, you need to face the reality that your cherished UK is unravelling. Time marches on. Much as you say a united Ireland is a dream so too is the dream that the UK will continue in its present form. The majority of Catholic/Nationalists will stay for now in the UK, only because they get free money. Perhaps in their minds it is pay back for all misery they have suffered. Not to mention the irish in the 26 have made a mess of the place. Northwest Cavan, southwest Fermangh, north Leitrim, we are all one people. Irish and proud.
WoundedKnee | Dec 14, 2012, 02:50 PM EST
Tory: You confuse nation with state. The Koreans are a nation, regardless of North and South. The East Germans didn't constitute a nation, as we saw when the place collapsed in a few weeks. That doesn't mean that they had no differences with West Germans--of course they did. But you can't invent a nationality--and Northern Ireland is certainly not a nation.
citizen69 | Dec 14, 2012, 01:58 PM EST
ArmaghCity: "there will not be any hint of discrimination against Protestants". How can you be so sure? Just this year a Sinn Fein government minister in Northern Ireland was found guilty of illegally discriminating against protestants in job allocations.
ToryTory | Dec 14, 2012, 12:17 PM EST
What a dumb, vapid article. The bigots of Irish Central always have a political axe to grind. The recent census results change absolutely nothing - political appraisals of NI have always factored in the incremental demographic change affecting NI society; this has been an ongoing process for at least three decades. Very few people believe that demography in NI will reach a critical mass that will induce unification: there simply won’t be an overwhelming majority that would legitimate any secession from the UK. The political dynamic is changing enormously with the increasing vitiation of the old supposition that Catholic can be equated to republican. That can no longer be assumed, indeed, the phenomenon of 'Northern Irish' as a national signifier retards that age old supposition. NI is laying the groundwork as national identity – a home nation identity – that is rooted in NI – that’s maturing despite the dinosaurs of Sinn Fein stoking animosity. It is politically naïve of Irish Central to assume that a vote for Sinn Fein is an implied vote for unification – it isn’t. The mechanism for unification is very clear in the GFA – only through a plebiscite can that be attained, which is triggered by popular support. Given that support for unification fluctuates between 7%-15%, currently polling at the lower end, I’m not holding my breath. That figure will only decrease as NI solidifies itself as a home nation, regardless of Sinn Fein’s duplicitousness, and without the ROI furtively or overtly interesting itself in NI (irredentist claims have gone; very little support amongst politicians or the public for unification) you can rest assured that it’s highly unlikely NI will ever unify with the ROI.
Will Hamilton | Dec 14, 2012, 12:08 PM EST
No matter who you were in NI you'd have to be devoid of a functioning brain to want to be ruled by the stew of potatoes playing a government that we have in the South. Orange rule may be bad but it's at least fading. Rome Rule accommodated by a gang of native gombeen men is a disaster that's been stumbling along since 1922. Welcome to the Republic of Botched.
cillowen | Dec 14, 2012, 10:48 AM EST
atheists will be crawing all over the 26 in the meantime.
ArmaghCity | Dec 14, 2012, 10:28 AM EST
Such pessimistic, negative comments from your readers thus far. But I can't say I'm surprised. My own comments are more optimistic, one, because the WHOLE of Ireland (North and Republic) already has a Catholic majority and, two, more importantly, when there is a Catholic (or Nationalist) majority in the North come the next census, there will not be any hint of discrimination against Protestants the way that there was against the Catholics for centuries. I consider this consensus trend a favourable one for all sides.
donal1951 | Dec 14, 2012, 10:27 AM EST
Evem with a Catholic voting majority, the people of the six counties are not going to vote for a united Ireland unless the government of the Republic shows them it is worth their while. Currently, Britain provides better social benefits to its citizens and permanent residents than Ireland does.
esatdigiwank | Dec 14, 2012, 10:04 AM EST
This is a highly bigoted piece of writing. I'm red-sick of us Irish being defined hence divided by religion. What is religion but O r g a n i s e d Mass D e l u s i o n !
WoundedKnee | Dec 14, 2012, 10:03 AM EST
A lot of those Catholics in the North are Poles and Lithuanians. They have no interest in a United Ireland, and would actually oppose it. In the South, the demographics are changing even more violently. Yesterday, for example, a Mass Immigration Session in Dublin gave Irish citizenship to 3500 foreign migrants. That's the equivalent of a US citizenship ceremony naturalizing A QUARTER OF A MILLION. In one day! And this isn't isolated or once off, every week or two the Dublin government is putting on these massive naturalization ceremonies. The mass influx of foreign migrants into Ireland is killing off hopes for a United Ireland, as it already has done with hopes for keeping the Irish language alive beyond our lifetimes.
lakeisle | Dec 14, 2012, 09:02 AM EST
Those outside of the 48% and 45% are not necessarily 'no religion'. I know, as I'm one of them! - I'm a Krishna follower (ISKCON/Hare Krishna/Hindu) living in Fermanagh. Also, more Catholics doesn't necessarily mean more people voting for Sinn Fein, as more people may vote for SDLP and Alliance. A lot of people who feel more Irish than British have hesitations about a united Ireland as most don't want an extension to violence and hatred, and as being shown at the moment, there are sections of people in NI who feel 'more British then the British themselves'.