An American View --- Ireland’s 2011 Presidential Election a damp squib

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There are two independent candidates of note: Sean Gallagher and Mary Davis.  Gallagher, a successful businessman and star of the popular “Dragon’s Den” Irish reality TV programme, is an unknown quantity politically or otherwise, excepting his past tenure on the Fianna Fáil national executive.  That unerasable line on his CV won’t help him with the electorate.

Davis is a social entrepreneur and activist best known for her great work on the Special Olympics when the games were held in Ireland in 2003, but a similarly unknown quantity politically.  She has an undeniable asset in her gender in this campaign.  Davis performed poorly, however, in the one televised encounter the presidential candidates have had to date.  In particular, one response she gave to a question revealed a profound misunderstanding of the constitutional powers of the Irish president.

Davis and Gallagher are well down in the opinion polls at the moment and will need a momentous boost to get their campaigns kick-started.  And as independents, they lack the significant benefit of major party support that Michael D. and Mitchell enjoy.

The presidential election is clearly Michael D. Higgins’s to lose at this point – Paddy Power Bookmakers rate him an 8/11 favourite – and it’s difficult to see how he doesn’t win right now.  There are some variables.  Michael D. could come off as annoying, arrogant and tedious during the campaign; Mitchell’s party affiliation could be enough to overcome his weaknesses; Davis or Gallagher might catch fire; Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin could nominate a candidate; a “celebrity” candidate, whether with the a party’s or as a true independent, could parachute into the race at this relatively late stage and change the dynamics entirely.

But each of these is growing increasingly implausible by the day.  The most likely scenario now is certainly appealing to the Labour party and to the litany of fans Michael D. Higgins has across the political spectrum and the country.  Yet this scenario is rather disappointing to those of us fascinated by electoral politics.  In the end, for all of the anticipation ahead of and excitement about the 2011 Irish presidential election, it looks like it’ll be a damp squib.

*Larry Donnelly is  a contributing columnist to IrishCentral.com. A native of Boston, he has been resident in Ireland for many years. He is a lawyer and law lecturer.

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