An American View --- Ireland’s 2011 Presidential Election a damp squib

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And notwithstanding persistent, fairly wild rumours of ongoing “approaches” being made to a myriad of prominent figures, it seems improbable that another independent candidate will surface at this juncture.

Fianna Fáil, at its historical nadir in the opinion polls, is highly unlikely to field its own candidate, having tried to entice “celebrity” independents to enter the race with party support.  The party brand is toxic and the funds necessary to run a campaign that is almost certainly doomed to fail are better off in the bank than in the bin.  Likewise, it appears doubtful that Sinn Féin, whose appeal with the national electorate remains limited, could now put forward a viable candidate.

So who does that leave?

After a three-way, very civil, internal contest, the Labour party nominated perhaps its most recognisable figure, long time Galway TD (member of parliament), Michael D. Higgins.  Michael D., as he is widely known, is a poet, writer, former NUI Galway lecturer and human rights activist, and also served as a Senator, a county councillor, city councillor and as Mayor of Galway City.  He played a key role in establishing TG4, the Irish language television station, when he was a member of cabinet in the mid-1990s.

Despite being well left of centre politically, Michael D. has a committed personal following in the rural, conservative west of Ireland.  In this presidential election, his left of centre views and Labour party identification will play very well in Dublin, whose abundant voters are far more liberal and Labour-leaning than voters in the regions.  What’s more, Michael D. has devoted admirers throughout the country and, because of his rather unique, quirky and outspoken public persona, there is nary an Irish voter who doesn’t know him.  After the demise of Senator Norris, who would have run very strongly in Dublin (where he lives) and attracted votes from those on the political left and the many citizens of all stripes who like him personally, Michael D. Higgins is, by a long shot, the undisputed front runner in the race.

On the other hand, Fine Gael had a three-way, but very uncivil, battle for its party nomination.  The eventual nominee, Dublin’s Gay Mitchell, a long time party stalwart and office holder (in the Irish and European parliaments and on Dublin City Council), appealed to the party’s grass roots and prevailed in an internal vote.  This result visibly infuriated the party leadership, who had preferred either of the other two challengers because of significant doubts about Mitchell’s electability.  The party leadership’s fear seems to be that Mitchell is too drab, too much of an insider, “too Dublin,” too conservative and will prove just too unpopular with voters to win national office in the Ireland of 2011.

There’s no doubt that Mitchell will poll reasonably well in Dublin and that his socially conservative views will appeal to some rural voters, but it will take some doing for him to attract the broader support necessary to win the election.  Not winning the presidency could be somewhat embarrassing for Fine Gael given their historically strong general election performance and still strong standing in the polls.

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